New poll complicates Vance’s status as Trump’s likely 2028 heir apparent

A caller canvass from New Hampshire, nan authorities that for a period has held nan first Republican statesmanlike primary, is nan latest to bespeak that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is gaining crushed successful a hypothetical 2028 GOP information matchup pinch Vice President JD Vance.

Vance stands astatine 36% support among apt GOP superior voters successful New Hampshire, pinch Rubio astatine 26%, according to a University of New Hampshire (UNH) Granite State Poll released this week.

That's a monolithic displacement from nan erstwhile UNH 2028 statesmanlike information survey, conducted successful February, which indicated Vance topping Rubio 53% to 7%.

Vance has agelong been viewed arsenic nan heir evident to term-limited President Donald Trump and his MAGA and America First base. While Vance remains nan clear hypothetical frontrunner, Rubio has narrowed nan spread successful nationalist polls and surveys conducted successful cardinal early-voting statesmanlike superior states up of a title that is not expected to statesman successful earnest until aft this autumn's midterm elections.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio, left, and Vice President JD Vance during a swearing-in ceremonial successful Washington, DC, US, connected Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025. (Oliver Contreras/Sipa/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Rubio's rise successful nan 2028 polls this twelvemonth comes amid an summation successful his responsibilities and nationalist profile, including his domiciled successful nan U.S. cognition successful Venezuela and nan ongoing warfare against Iran.

Rubio, who arsenic a legislator from Florida was 1 of much than a twelve Republican contenders who ran and mislaid to Trump successful nan tumultuous 2016 presidential primary, came successful a adjacent 2nd to Vance earlier this twelvemonth successful nan intimately watched 2028 Republican statesmanlike information straw canvass astatine nan yearly Conservative Political Action Conference, which is amended known by its acronym CPAC.

Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who ran for nan information successful 2016 and is mulling different bid, stood a distant 3rd astatine 8% successful nan new UNH survey, on pinch erstwhile ambassador and erstwhile South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was nan runner-up to Trump successful 2024.

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Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., who unsuccessfully ran for nan 2016 GOP statesmanlike nomination, is seen arsenic a imaginable 2028 contender. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who besides bid for nan information successful 2024, grabbed 6% support, pinch everyone other tested astatine 4% aliases less.

"There's cipher other successful nan speech too those two, truthful this canvass makes sense," New Hampshire-based Republican advisor David Carney, a seasoned of galore statesmanlike campaigns, told Fox News Digital arsenic he referred to Vance and Rubio.

The latest surveys and straw canvass results are substance for intrigue complete what immoderate successful the Republican Party see arsenic a budding rivalry betwixt Rubio and Vance, who picture each different arsenic friends.

Partially fueling Rubio's emergence is Trump, who has lavishly praised his caput of state.

The president earlier this twelvemonth declared that Rubio would spell down arsenic "the top caput of authorities successful history."

Trump has besides promoted a Vance-Rubio ticket — calling it "unstoppable" — but has not said who should beryllium astatine nan apical of nan ticket.

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Vice President JD Vance, left, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, astatine a White House meeting, connected March 17, 2026 successful Washington D.C. (Photographer: Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

But nan president did opportunity past twelvemonth that Vance is "most likely" his heir apparent. "In each fairness, he's nan vice president," Trump added.

While Vance has demurred erstwhile questioned astir 2028, he has built a governmental squad of advisers who, if he runs arsenic expected, would quickly build retired a statesmanlike campaign.

Rubio, who is crisscrossing nan globe arsenic portion of his occupation requirements, doesn't person a akin group of governmental aides. And Rubio has said he'll backmost Vance if nan vice president launches a 2028 campaign.

Regardless, Republican sources confirmed to Fox News earlier this twelvemonth that a group of GOP donors supporting nan caput of authorities are softly exploring ways to boost Rubio's governmental profile.

That's not sitting good pinch immoderate successful nan president's governmental orbit.

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"Vice President Vance is nan early of nan Republican Party and Marco Rubio is 1 of his closest friends successful nan administration," an operative successful Trump's governmental orbit told Fox News Digital earlier this year.

"The divisive stories from immoderate donors trying to origin chaos are not helpful," nan operative, who asked to stay anonymous to speak much freely, emphasized.

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Vice President JD Vance, accompanied by his boy Vivek, and Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, poses for a photograph pinch members of Iowa Army and Air National Guard astatine Des Moines International Airport successful Des Moines, Iowa, Tuesday, May 5, 2026. (Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo)

Vance has besides weighed in, telling Fox News' Martha MacCallum earlier this twelvemonth that "Marco is my closest friend successful nan administration."

And nan vice president, successful his question and reply connected Fox News' "The Story," added, "I deliberation it's truthful absorbing nan media wants to create this conflict wherever location conscionable isn't immoderate conflict."

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Trump will person a monolithic power connected nan 2028 GOP information title to win him. An endorsement from nan president would springiness a awesome boost to whomever he backs.

But a longtime Republican strategist, who asked to stay anonymous to speak much freely, offered a informing for nan vice president: "Vance is successful nan catbird spot until immoderate really goes bad and Trump is going to blasted him... I can't image Vance stepping this tightrope for 2 much years without pissing disconnected Trump."