Why Gulf states aren’t joining the war against Iran — despite attacks on their soil

Even arsenic Iran expands attacks crossed nan Persian Gulf, respective of nan countries straight targeted are still refusing to subordinate nan conflict against Iran, opting alternatively for restraint and diplomacy. Gulf governments opportunity their privilege is defending their territory while preventing a wider conflict that could destabilize nan region and world power markets.

When asked by Fox News White House elder analogous Peter Doocy astir Iran’s strikes connected Gulf states Monday, Donald Trump said experts had not anticipated Tehran would target neighboring countries.

"Nobody. Nobody. The top experts — cipher thought they were going to hit," Trump said erstwhile Doocy asked astir Iranian attacks targeting Qatar, Saudi Arabia, nan United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait.

TRUMP SEEKS WARSHIPS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES TO HELP SECURE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

A plume of fume rises from nan Zayed Port pursuing a reported Iranian onslaught successful Abu Dhabi connected March 1, 2026. Iran's retaliatory rocket and drone run successful nan Gulf has killed 3 group and wounded 58 successful nan United Arab Emirates since it began, Emirati authorities said connected March 1, nan time aft nan U.S. and Israel launched a nationwide onslaught connected Iran sidesplitting its ultimate leader. (Ryan Lim / AFP via Getty Images)

Tehran widened nan conflict aft U.S.-Israeli strikes connected Iranian lipid accommodation earlier this month, expanding retaliation to Gulf power infrastructure and shipping routes successful nan Strait of Hormuz, according to nan Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.

Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded astatine slightest 25 Iranian attacks against shipping successful nan Gulf and nan Strait of Hormuz since Feb. 28, arsenic good arsenic strikes targeting power infrastructure crossed respective Gulf states.

"Tehran targeted Gulf power infrastructure and shipping successful nan Strait of Hormuz seeking to raise nan costs of nan warfare for nan U.S. and its location partners," said Luca Nevola, ACLED’s elder expert for Yemen and nan Gulf.

Jacob Olidort, main investigation serviceman astatine nan America First Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital that, "Since Operation Epic Fury began, our Gulf partners person responded pinch an unprecedented unified beforehand against threats posed by nan Iranian regime," he said, adding that their actions person focused connected stopping attacks alternatively than expanding nan war. "This reflects not conscionable a desire to stabilize nan region but besides a nickname that nan U.S. military’s occurrence is what makes that possible."

Foreign workers look astatine a gangly plume of achromatic fume ascends pursuing an detonation successful nan Fujairah business area connected March 3, 2026. Iran's strikes connected Gulf neighbors since February 28, pursuing nan U.S.-Israeli attack, forced nan UAE to unopen its airspace, blindsiding travelers who thought they were headed to 1 of nan region's safest vacation destinations. (Fadel Senna / AFP via Getty Images)

Salman Al-Ansari, a Saudi geopolitical researcher, told Fox News Digital that Riyadh is focusing connected maintaining world marketplace stability. "Riyadh is exercising maximum restraint astatine nan moment, but nan existent mobility is really agelong that restraint tin last," Al-Ansari said.

Al-Ansari pointed to a long-standing Saudi strategical philosophy. "Over a 100 years ago, nan laminitis of Saudi Arabia, King Abdulaziz Al Saud, said: ‘The surviving do not conflict nan dead.’ Perhaps Riyadh is pursuing this doctrine, astatine slightest until further developments unfold," he said.

Qatar has taken a akin approach. "The State of Qatar’s policies ever activity to de-escalate conflicts," a Qatari charismatic told Fox News Digital. "Qatar is not a statement to this war, and we powerfully judge that nan unit must extremity done negotiations. At nan aforesaid time. Qatar continues to take sides its state and sovereignty pursuing nan Iranian attacks."

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Firefighters activity successful Muharraq, Bahrain, aft reported Iranian strikes triggered a occurrence astatine substance tanks adjacent nan airport, connected Thursday, March 12, 2026. (Bahrain Information Ministry/Reuters)

Another facet shaping Gulf restraint is simply a location argumentation of refusing to let their territory to beryllium utilized for attacks connected Iran. Some U.S. subject experts opportunity nan Gulf’s hesitation is besides tied to long-standing concerns astir Washington’s reliability successful nan region.

Vice Adm. Robert S. Harward, a erstwhile lawman commandant of U.S. Central Command, told Fox News Digital that inconsistent U.S. policies person eroded spot among Gulf partners. "Our policies successful nan Middle East person been much cyclical than a revolving door," Harward said. "We person grounded to gain nan spot and assurance of our Gulf partners complete nan past decade and a half. And that deficiency of spot and assurance has only exacerbated nan threat from Iran to nan region."

The now retired vice admiral said Gulf governments are weighing nan risks of escalation carefully. "As these countries see whether to spell connected nan offensive, they are worried astir what happens erstwhile we leave," he said. "Admittedly, these countries are challenged to take sides themselves against a state of 90 cardinal without us."

Regional analysts opportunity Gulf leaders are concerned that if moreover 1 state joins the fighting, nan conflict could quickly engulf nan region.

Abdullah Aljunaid, a Bahraini analyst, told Fox News Digital that if 1 personnel of nan Gulf Cooperation Council enters nan war, it could resistance nan full bloc pinch it. "If immoderate personnel of nan GCC decided to subordinate this offensive, it would obligate nan remainder of nan GCC countries to subordinate astatine nan aforesaid time," Aljunaid said.

The consequences could widen acold beyond nan battlefield. "You could ideate what nan lipid prices would be. We are decidedly talking astir northbound of $150 per barrel," he claimed.

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Iranian flags alert arsenic occurrence and fume from an Israeli onslaught connected Sharan Oil depot rise, pursuing Israeli strikes connected Iran, successful Tehran, Iran, June 15, 2025. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)

Aljunaid said Gulf leaders are besides wary of open-ended military campaigns successful nan region. "Past experiences show that each clip subject action is initiated successful nan region, it ne'er ends according to what was promised," he said.

Instead, he said Gulf countries are focusing connected protect measures while softly supporting negotiated channels, including mediation efforts done Oman.

Lt. Gen. Richard Y. Newton III said Iran made a awesome strategical mistake by striking Gulf countries. "Iran made a strategical blunder by striking Gulf nations – our friends and friends – pinch ballistic missiles and drone attacks," Newton told Fox News Digital.

The retired Air Force commandant warned that attacks connected cardinal infrastructure specified arsenic lipid fields aliases desalination plants could push Gulf states toward a much fierce response.

"I'm inclined to judge location whitethorn perchance beryllium 1 aliases 2 nations successful nan region inclined to subordinate pinch nan U.S. by going violative against Iran," Newton said. "That is surely wrong nan realm of anticipation successful nan coming weeks."

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An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps speedboat sails successful nan Persian Gulf during an IRGC marine parade marking Persian Gulf National Day adjacent nan Bushehr atomic powerfulness works successful Bushehr, Iran, connected April 29, 2024. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Newton added that nan semipermanent nonsubjective for nan U.S. and its partners should beryllium preventing Iran from threatening location stableness and world shipping routes. "That includes achieving maritime power successful nan Persian Gulf and mounting nan conditions for safe transition for commercialized shipping done nan Strait of Hormuz," he said.

For now, however, Gulf leaders look wished to incorporate nan conflict alternatively than escalate it, moreover arsenic Iranian strikes person already reached their territory.

The UAE did not instantly respond to requests for comment.