Who is Turkey's Erdoğan? How NATO's most unpredictable leader keeps reinventing himself

As President Donald Trump heads to Ankara, Turkey, for nan upcoming NATO summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is again astatine nan halfway of confederation politics. 

Trump has praised Erdoğan arsenic "a friend" and "a respected leader," underscoring a narration that could style defense talks betwixt Washington and Turkey, including Turkey’s long-running effort to reconstruct deeper subject cooperation. 

The infinitesimal highlights nan singular position Erdoğan occupies today: Once regarded arsenic 1 of NATO’s astir troublesome friends aft taking transportation of nan Russian S-400 rocket defense system successful 2019, Turkey has go progressively difficult for nan confederation to sideline arsenic nan warfare successful Ukraine drags on, instability grips nan Middle East and nan Black Sea grows much strategic. 

For many, however, Erdoğan remains an enigma. Rather than being driven by a fixed worldview, experts argue, Erdoğan many times has reinvented himself politically, adopting whichever ideology champion serves his overriding objective: remaining successful power. 

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As President Donald Trump heads to Ankara, Turkey, for nan upcoming NATO summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is again astatine nan halfway of confederation politics.  (Pierre Crom/Getty Images)

Erdoğan has ruled Turkey for much than 2 decades, evolving from an Istanbul politician pinch Islamist roots into a pro-European reformer, past a nationalist strongman, and now a pivotal NATO powerfulness agent courted by Trump. 

To supporters, he restored Turkey's world stature. To critics, he hollowed retired its populist while jailing rivals, journalists and activists. But Erdoğan's astir defining trait, experts say, whitethorn beryllium little ideology than survival.

Is he an Islamist? A nationalist? A Western ally? A Russian partner? An authoritarian?

Perhaps nan astir important point to understand astir Erdoğan is that he has been each of those things — astatine different moments, according to Gönül Tol, founding head of nan Middle East Institute's Turkey Program and writer of "Erdoğan's War: A Strongman's Struggle astatine Home and successful Syria." 

"He's not an ideological man," Tol told Fox News Digital. "He's very pragmatic, first and foremost a populist."

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remains an enigma for many.  (AP)

The Conservative Democrat

Erdoğan’s roots dishonesty successful Turkey’s Islamist governmental movement. Educated astatine an Imam Hatip belief school, he entered authorities done National Outlook, a right-wing Islamist activity founded by Necmettin Erbakan, and yet became politician of Istanbul arsenic a personnel of Erbakan’s Welfare Party.

But aft founding nan AKP, aliases Justice and Development Party, successful 2001, Erdoğan abandoned nan Islamist label, presenting himself alternatively arsenic a "conservative democrat" committed to economical betterment and person ties pinch Europe — a displacement that experts opportunity marked nan first of respective governmental reinventions.

When Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party first swept to powerfulness successful 2002, Turkey was seeking rank successful nan European Union, subject power complete authorities was shrinking, and Erdoğan promised antiauthoritarian reforms, economical modernization and person ties pinch nan West.

Many liberals and centrists initially supported him.

"He often said, 'I'm not an Islamist anymore. I'm a blimpish democrat,'" Tol said. "And that marque really served him well."

Those early years transformed some Turkey's system and Erdoğan's popularity.

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Many liberals and centrists initially supported Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan.  (Dilara Senkaya/Reuters)

The Islamist

After consolidating power, Erdoğan began different governmental transformation.

Following nan Arab Spring successful 2011, he progressively portrayed himself arsenic a champion of governmental Islam, backing Islamist movements crossed nan Middle East while presenting himself domestically arsenic nan defender of Turkey's blimpish belief majority.

"He wanted to inject much Islam into nationalist life, into education," Tol said. "He was utilizing this much Islamist communicative ... nan extremity was ever to get much power."

That anti-Western move went beyond rhetoric. 

In 2016, Erdoğan accused nan U.S.-led conjugation of supporting violent groups successful Syria, including ISIS and Kurdish militias that Turkey considers violent organizations— an allegation nan State Department dismissed arsenic "ludicrous," according to Reuters.

His progressively vocal support for Hamas and crisp disapproval of Israel became defining features of his overseas policy. 

"The perpetrators of nan massacre and nan demolition taking spot successful Gaza are those providing unlimited support for Israel," Erdoğan said successful 2023, adding that Israel's attacks and those backing them amounted to "murder and intelligence illness," according to Reuters.

Tol cautions against viewing those positions unsocial arsenic grounds that Erdoğan remains chiefly motivated by Islamism. 

"Anti-Israel sentiment cuts crossed ideological lines successful Turkey," she said, arguing that Erdoğan's overseas argumentation has consistently reflected governmental calculation much than belief doctrine.

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A group of protesters seen carrying a banner pinch pictures of nan slain Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar.  (Murat Kocabas/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

The nationalist strongman

As Turkey's system slowed and location ambitions faltered, Erdoğan pivoted erstwhile again.

He embraced Turkish nationalism, built alliances pinch hardline nationalist parties and cultivated nan image of an indispensable strongman tin of restoring Turkey's humanities influence.

Supporters in installments him pinch transforming Turkey into a location power.

"He does person genuine support," Tol said, estimating his support astatine astir 35%.

Some supporters dangle connected authorities assistance and patronage networks built nether his rule. Others judge Erdoğan restored dignity to blimpish belief Turks who agelong felt marginalized by nan country's secular establishment.

Still others position his progressively assertive overseas argumentation arsenic impervious Turkey has reclaimed its spot connected nan world stage.

"They think, 'We person go a world-class nation,'" Tol said. "'Everyone is praising our president. Turkey is simply a large player.'"

While Erdoğan continues to bid a loyal governmental base, critics opportunity nan value has been Turkey's antiauthoritarian institutions.

Authorities progressively person utilized courts and criminal investigations to sideline governmental opponents, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, whose apprehension earlier successful 2026 triggered nationwide demonstrations, according to Human Rights Watch.

The statement says nan authorities has intensified efforts to weaken Turkey's main guidance statement contempt its beardown capacity successful nan 2024 municipal elections.

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President Donald Trump greets Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a acme to support ending nan much than two-year Israel-Hamas warfare successful Gaza aft a breakthrough ceasefire deal, Monday, Oct. 13, 2025, successful Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. (Evan Vucci AP Photo/ Pool)

The NATO dealmaker

Today, Erdoğan finds himself successful different governmental transformation.

After years of anti-Western rhetoric and disputes pinch Washington, Turkey has worked to repair relations pinch nan United States and Europe.

That rhetoric was erstwhile cardinal to Erdoğan's posture. 

He accused nan U.S.-led conjugation successful Syria of supporting violent groups, blasted Washington's sanctions complete Turkey's acquisition of nan Russian S-400 rocket defense system, calling them a "hostile attack" connected Turkey's sovereign authorities and defense industry, and many times accused Western governments of enabling Israel's warfare successful Gaza.

The displacement comes arsenic Turkey's strategical value has grown dramatically.

The S-400 acquisition remains astatine nan halfway of 1 of nan biggest unresolved disputes betwixt Washington and Ankara. After Turkey took transportation of nan Russian strategy successful 2019, nan U.S. expelled Turkey from nan F-35 combatant pitchy programme and later imposed sanctions connected Turkey's defense procurement agency.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey precocious told Fox News Digital that restoring Turkey to nan F-35 programme remains acold much analyzable than different defense deals because operating nan Russian-made S-400 alongside America's astir precocious stealth combatant could expose delicate U.S. technology.

"The F-35 is simply a different issue," Jeffrey said, arguing that nan problem is technical, not simply political.

Turkey controls nan Bosporus and Dardanelles, fields NATO's second-largest subject and plays a captious domiciled successful nan Black Sea pursuing Russia's penetration of Ukraine.

Jeffrey said that Turkey has been "essential to Ukraine staying successful nan fight," pointing to Turkey's enforcement of nan Montreux Convention, a 1936 pact that gives Turkey power complete naval transition done nan Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, its early transportation of Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, and its domiciled arsenic a mediator betwixt Kyiv and Moscow. 

"You can't incorporate Russia successful nan Black Sea without Turkey," Jeffrey said.

For Tol, however, Erdoğan's latest clasp of NATO is simply different illustration of his governmental flexibility.

"There was a clip erstwhile he was very anti-Western, very captious of NATO, very captious of nan United States," she said.

"And now look astatine him."

People chant slogans arsenic they protestation nan apprehension of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu successful Istanbul, Turkey, Wednesday, March 19, 2025. (Francisco Seco/The Associated Press )

Growing criticism

Human Rights Watch argues Erdoğan has utilized Turkey's increasing value to NATO arsenic governmental screen while expanding unit connected journalists, activists and guidance figures.

Freedom House says Erdoğan has go "increasingly authoritarian" complete nan past decade, consolidating powerfulness done law changes and nan imprisonment of governmental opponents, independent journalists and civilian nine figures.

Turkey's prisons held much than 420,000 inmates — acold exceeding their charismatic capacity of astir 304,000, according to a June 2026 study citing Turkish Justice Ministry figures.

 NATO friends person grown quieter connected Turkey's authorities record arsenic Ankara's strategical worth has risen, Reuters reported up of nan summit, pinch erstwhile U.S. Ambassador David Satterfield saying it remains important for nan West to speak publically astir nan "degradation of antiauthoritarian institutions successful Turkey."

Tol believes Erdoğan's home schedule tin beryllium understood done a azygous principle.

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People return portion successful a objection against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Sweden's NATO bid arranged by The Kurdish Democratic Society Center successful Sweden, successful Stockholm, Saturday, Jan. 21. 2023. (Christine Olsson/TT via AP)

"Everything is designed to support him successful power," she said. "Beyond that, I don't spot a binding ideology that brings together each his policies."

As Trump heads to Turkey, that whitethorn beryllium nan cardinal to knowing 1 of NATO's astir consequential — and unpredictable — leaders.

Fox News Digital reached retired to nan Turkish authorities for comment.

Fox News Digital's Morgan Phillips and Reuters contributed to this report.