Which team will win the Championship playoffs?

Millwall

For a while it looked arsenic if Millwall would unafraid automatic promotion, but they vanished a constituent down Ipswich. Millwall person only spent 2 seasons successful nan English apical flight. They won nan Division Two title successful 1987-88, vanished 10th successful their first play successful nan apical formation and were relegated nan pursuing twelvemonth having vanished last.

They sojourn Hull City for nan first limb of their semi-final connected Friday night, but travelling has not been an rumor for them this season. Millwall won much distant points than immoderate different squad successful nan Championship this play (41) and mislaid conscionable 4 of their 23 distant games. One of their distant wins came astatine Hull successful March (3-1) – though they mislaid by nan aforesaid scoreline successful their location lucifer against nan Tigers.

Millwall person a mixed history successful nan playoffs. They person reached nan last successful their past 4 playoff appearances, each of which were successful League One (2008-09, 2009-10, 2015-16, 2016-17). But, connected nan flip side, they person been beaten successful nan semi-finals successful their 3 appearances successful nan second-tier playoffs (1990-91, 1993-94, 2001-02).

The bully news is that occurrence successful nan regular play tends to transportation complete to nan playoffs. Teams that person vanished 3rd successful nan array person reached nan playoff last (17 times) and won promotion (nine times) much often than immoderate different convention position since nan Championship rebrand successful 2004-05.

Millwall look different of nan much nonstop sides successful nan Championship erstwhile they meet Hull. Only Oxford United and Charlton (both 21%) played a higher proportionality of their passes agelong than Millwall and Hull successful 2025-26 (19%). Femi Azeez will beryllium Millwall’s cardinal player, having been their apical scorer (11) and assister (seven) successful nan convention this season.

Hull City

Hull City person nan opportunity to make their measurement backmost to nan Premier League aft a nine-year absence. They came from down to hit Norwich 2-1 connected nan last time of nan play and pipped Wrexham to a spot successful nan playoffs.

Oliver McBurnie scored some goals successful that triumph and he has been their main threat each season. He scored 4 goals successful his past 5 games and to return his tally to 17 successful nan Championship – only Swansea guardant Zan Vipotnik (23) scored more.

Statistically, Hull City were nan biggest overachievers this season, securing 19.9 points much than their expected points full (73 v 53.1). Astonishingly, if nan Championship play was based connected expected points, they would person vanished 23rd. Hull vanished sixth pinch 73 points. The past squad to beryllium promoted pinch less points were Crystal Palace, who vanished nan 2012-13 play pinch conscionable 72 points but went connected to hit Watford successful nan playoff final.

Since nan Championship rebrand successful 2004-05, only 2 teams person won nan playoff last aft finishing sixth successful nan table. Hull will dream to replicate nan feats of West Ham successful 2004-05 and Blackpool successful 2009-10, who did conscionable that.

Southampton

Southampton person been nan champion performers successful nan Championship since Tonda Eckert was appointed head successful November. During his clip successful charge, Saints collected much points than immoderate different squad (68). They besides came adjacent to reaching nan FA Cup final, only missing retired aft Manchester City came from down and won their semi-final 2-1 acknowledgment to 2 precocious goals.

Under Eckert they scored 11 goals much than immoderate different squad successful nan Championship (69), and were by acold nan astir objective squad successful nan division, too, converting 14.4% of their shots. One subordinate who has thrived nether Eckert is 27-year-old guardant Léo Scienza, who has been progressive successful 16 goals (six goals, 10 assists) successful 29 games nether nan German coach.

So mediocre was Southampton’s commencement to nan play – they were 4th from bottommost aft 13 matches, erstwhile Will Still was sacked – that they only spent 49 days wrong nan Championship apical six this season. Even Leicester, who were relegated, spent much days successful nan apical six (59). Southampton are unbeaten successful their past 19 convention games (14 wins, 5 draws). This is their longest unbeaten tally since nan 2023-24 play (22 games) – erstwhile they ended up winning nan playoff final.

Finishing 4th mightiness beryllium a bully omen, too. The squad that has vanished 4th successful nan Championship has won promotion successful 3 of nan past 4 seasons, including Southampton themselves 2 years ago.

One point that mightiness activity against them is their shape successful nan biggest convention games. They only won 1 of their 10 matches against nan different teams that vanished successful nan apical six – nan worst grounds successful that mini-league.

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough are hoping to extremity their eight-season spell successful nan Championship and whitethorn see themselves unfortunate to not already beryllium celebrating promotion. They vanished 5th successful nan table, but spent 217 days successful nan apical 2 – nan aforesaid arsenic champions Coventry. Ipswich stole successful astatine nan last, having spent conscionable 28 days successful nan apical 2 – less than 17th-placed Stoke City (43).

Middlesbrough had an unthinkable grounds of holding connected to leads earlier this season. Before their tie against Bristol City connected 14 March, they had won each 20 convention games successful which they had led. But, successful their past 9 games, they dropped 11 points from winning positions.

Boro had to woody pinch losing Rob Edwards successful November. Attracted to nan proposition of managing Wolves, a nine he had played for, he moved connected aft little than 5 months successful charge. His replacement, Kim Hellberg, has done a decent capable job. Since nan Swede’s first crippled successful complaint connected 29 November, Middlesbrough person won 50 points – nan sixth-best tally successful nan league.

Under Hellberg, Middlesbrough person had nan highest possession successful nan Championship (62.8%) and averaged 51 much successful passes per crippled (459) than immoderate different side. Southampton, who they play successful nan playoff semi-finals, are 2nd successful some categories.

Boro do not person nan champion grounds successful nan playoffs. They were promoted to nan apical formation via nan playoffs successful 1987-88, erstwhile they hit Chelsea complete 2 legs. But they person reached nan second-tier playoffs 4 times since past and person not won promotion.

Who will triumph nan playoffs?

The Opta supercomputer has been difficult astatine activity crunching nan information to foretell who will triumph promotion to nan Premier League and it makes Southampton nan favourites. Saints reached nan last successful 58.8% of nan supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations and won it 32.9% of nan time. Millwall are nan only nine successful nan playoffs that person ne'er played successful nan Premier League, but they are nan supercomputer’s 2nd favourites. Middlesbrough and Hull are nan outsiders.

This is an article by Opta Analyst