Trump won’t rule out Kharg Island takeover: What a US assault could look like

Hundreds of U.S. Marines large wind ashore arsenic helicopters thunder overhead, Navy warships and combatant jets found overwhelming aerial and oversea superiority, and commanders rumor 1 last informing to Iranian forces: surrender aliases beryllium overrun.

That is really subject experts envision nan opening hours of a imaginable U.S. cognition to prehend Iran's Kharg Island—the mini but strategically captious land that handles astir 90% of nan Islamic Republic's crude lipid exports and has go nan centerpiece of Washington's economical unit run against Tehran.

The script was thrust backmost into nan spotlight Tuesday aft President Donald Trump declined to norm retired taking nan island. "I can't opportunity that to you because if I did, it would beryllium foolish," Trump told Fox News main overseas analogous Trey Yingst during an exclusive question and reply connected ‘Special Report’ erstwhile asked straight whether he planned to prehend Kharg island. He added that erstwhile U.S. strikes intentionally avoided nan island's lipid accommodation because they are "a chunk of nan world economy."

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Satellite position of Kharg Island, located successful nan Persian Gulf disconnected nan seashore of Iran. (Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2024)

"There are a batch of ways to tegument this cat," Vice Adm. (Ret.) Robert Harward, erstwhile lawman commandant of U.S. Central Command, told Fox News Digital successful an interview.

Harward explained a Marine Expeditionary Unit could behaviour an amphibious battle while U.S. naval and aerial forces found complete power complete nan battlespace, giving Iranian defenders an opportunity to surrender earlier awesome fighting begins. The goal, he said, would not simply beryllium to seizure nan land but to sphere nan lipid infrastructure that could 1 time service a post-Islamic Republic government.

"The existent nonsubjective astatine nan extremity of nan time is to minimize risk," said Harward. "Not only to your ain forces, but to nan group you're coming successful interaction with," while besides limiting harm to accommodation that could yet beryllium handed complete to "a authorities of Iran that is focused connected supporting its people, arsenic opposed to proliferating nan Islamic Revolution."

Trump's remarks echoed Harward's appraisal that preserving Kharg's lipid accommodation would apt beryllium a cardinal subject objective. Trump said he had instructed U.S. forces during erstwhile strikes to "hit everything, but nan oil," explaining that damaging nan export terminal could person important consequences for nan world economy.

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U.S. forces behaviour a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of nan Veronica III without incident successful nan INDOPACOM area of work aft nan alloy allegedly tried to defy President Trump’s quarantine, Feb. 15, 2026. (X/@DeptofWar)

But subject experts opportunity capturing Kharg whitethorn beryllium nan easiest portion of nan mission.

Located conscionable 16 miles disconnected Iran's Gulf coast, nan eight-square-mile land sits good wrong scope of Iranian missiles, drones and shore-based anti-ship weapons. While analysts judge U.S. forces could apt prehend nan land wrong hours, holding it against sustained retaliation from nan adjacent mainland could require a acold larger and longer subject commitment—raising nan consequence of direct warfare pinch Iran itself.

Kharg's strategical value predates Iran's modern lipid industry. British forces concisely occupied nan land during confrontations pinch Persia complete Herat successful 1838 and again during nan Anglo-Persian War successful 1856, utilizing its location adjacent nan Iranian seashore to use unit connected Tehran. Nearly a period later, Iran selected Kharg arsenic a deep-water lipid terminal because its sheltered waters could accommodate ample tankers. Construction began successful nan precocious 1950s, and nan terminal entered work successful 1960, transforming nan land into nan main outlet for Iranian crude.

"Everybody talks astir seizing Kharg," Nicholas Carl, adjunct head of nan Critical Threats Project astatine nan American Enterprise Institute, told Fox News Digital. "Iran has spent decades investing successful denial capabilities designed specifically to support U.S. forces distant from its shores." Those capabilities see anti-ship cruise missiles, drones, naval mines and hundreds of accelerated onslaught trade designed to overwhelm superior naval forces.

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A outer image shows an lipid terminal astatine Kharg Island, Iran, February 25, 2026. (2026 Planet Labs PBC/Handout via Reuters)

Military planners person agelong viewed Iran's anti-access strategy arsenic 1 of nan astir blase successful nan Middle East. Rather than matching nan U.S. Navy vessel for ship, Tehran has invested heavy successful asymmetric weapons intended to make immoderate amphibious battle costly.

Harward, a erstwhile personnel of nan National Security Council and existent personnel of nan Jewish Institute for National Security of America's Iran Policy Project, acknowledged that erstwhile American forces were connected Kharg, nan superior threat would displacement from accepted naval combat to rocket and drone attacks launched from nan adjacent mainland.

"Iran doesn't really person aerial power," Harward said. "The interest is whether they motorboat missiles and drones astatine nan land pinch U.S. forces connected nan ground. That's nan biggest risk."

Harward said nan viability of nan cognition would yet dangle connected intelligence astir nan number and disposition of Iranian forces, whether they had prepared booby traps aliases improvised explosive devices, and really Tehran mightiness respond erstwhile American troops were ashore.

Still, he argued, specified retaliation would travel astatine a value for Tehran.

"If they commencement striking Kharg itself, they go accountable for damaging their ain economical lifeline," he said.

The situation illustrates nan favoritism betwixt tactical occurrence and strategical success. Seizing an eight-square-mile land is 1 subject problem. Defending it against sustained attacks only a short region from Iranian territory is another.

A wide position of nan Port of Kharg Island Oil Terminal, 25 km from nan Iranian seashore successful nan Persian Gulf and 483 km northwest of nan Strait of Hormuz, successful Iran connected March 12, 2017. (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

Harward suggested Washington still has respective options short of launching an amphibious assault.

With nan U.S.-led blockade, reinforced Tuesday, already constraining Iran's lipid exports, he based on that further economical unit could target overland proscription routes, separator crossings and aerial postulation alternatively of committing crushed troops.

"There is still a batch you could do to heighten nan economical challenges to Iran," Harward said. "Synchronizing military, economical and governmental unit is really nan strategy."

Some strategists person besides questioned whether Kharg is nan astir valuable subject objective.

Mark Fox, a retired Vice Admiral and a erstwhile commandant of nan 5th Fleet, antecedently told Fox News Digital that Kharg is fundamentally an lipid terminal alternatively than a subject fortress. Instead, he argued, smaller islands specified arsenic Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa—disputed islands adjacent nan Strait of Hormuz—could coming much manageable subject objectives while creating a important strategical dilemma for Tehran because of their location on 1 of nan world's astir important shipping lanes.

For Harward, however, nan larger mobility extends beyond immoderate azygous island.

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Export lipid pipelines are seen astatine an lipid installation connected Kharg Island, connected nan statement of nan Gulf, Feb. 23, 2016. (Str/AFP Via Getty Images)

"I deliberation nan only existent extremity authorities to guarantee semipermanent stableness and information successful nan region is simply a authorities of Iran that renounces nan Islamic Revolution and focuses connected nan Iranian people," he said. That would require ending Tehran's atomic ambitions, halting support for proxy groups, protecting state of navigation done nan Strait of Hormuz and ending nan regime's home repression.

Whether Washington ever decides to prehend Kharg, subject planners work together connected 1 point: Capturing Iran's economical lifeline would apt beryllium measured successful hours, but successfully holding it—and managing nan regional escalation that could travel — would beryllium a acold longer and much analyzable campaign.