3 weeks ago
Merrill Nielsen’s wheat harvest looked patient aft he planted it successful nan autumn connected his 2,500-acre workplace successful north-central Kansas, astir 50 miles westbound of Salina, nan plants benefiting from higher-than-normal November rainfall.
But an abnormally lukewarm and barren winter, followed by utmost somesthesia variability, stressed nan processing wheat. In nan winter-to-spring transition, temperatures fluctuated from 70 to 80F connected immoderate days and lows successful nan teens aliases debased 20s connected different days.
He jokes that nan wheat “wasn’t judge whether aliases not to person its Bermuda shorts and sunglasses connected and cook successful nan sun … aliases to person its wintertime overgarment on”.
But nan volatile upwind destroyed his crop. This week, a harvest security adjuster told Nielsen that, astatine best, his fields would output 2 bushels per acre, compared pinch nan normal upper-40s to mid-50s bushels per acre. “Crop will beryllium terminated,” he texted a reporter, deciding not to harvest what small wheat grew.
Nielsen has farmed for astir 50 years, and grows wheat, atom sorghum, soya beans and alfalfa connected nan workplace his great-grandfather established successful 1871. He says this year’s play was 1 of his worst successful years. He’s not alone.
Farmers successful nan cardinal and confederate Great Plains turn overmuch of nan country’s bread-type wheat, difficult reddish winter. It’s sown successful nan autumn to found roots up of wintertime truthful it tin commencement increasing earlier nan summertime power sets in. Kansas is nan largest US producer, pinch Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado and Nebraska large growers arsenic well.
Numbers carnivore retired Nielsen’s observations, arsenic Kansas and Oklahoma had their second-warmest twelvemonth from March 2025 to March 2026. In March, temperatures were 10 to 11F supra normal, says Shel Winkley, a Texas-based meteorologist astatine Climate Central, a non-profit investigation organization. It was nan third-warmest March connected grounds for Kansas, pinch grounds warmth for Oklahoma, allowing drought conditions to group successful further.
This year’s wintertime wheat harvest information successful nan Plains is 1 of nan poorest successful caller history, rivaling 2023, different drought year. The weekly harvest information report issued by an limb of nan US Department of Agriculture rates nan 44% of Kansas’s and 49% of Oklahoma’s wheat successful very mediocre to mediocre condition, pinch akin ratings elsewhere.
The utmost March power has nan fingerprints of nan ambiance crisis, Winkley says, because of nan drought and prolonged power nan area was already experiencing.
“It wasn’t conscionable a weird, wonky March. We understand there’s thing bigger here,” he says. “Especially astatine nan highest of nan power successful March, we cognize that those temperatures would beryllium uncommon aliases almost virtually intolerable astatine that clip of nan twelvemonth successful nan cardinal Plains, without an power of ambiance change.”
Farmers successful north-central and north-west Kansas were deed difficult this season, and Romulo Lollato, nan wheat and forages accumulation professor astatine Kansas State University, expects affected producers successful this area whitethorn travel Nielsen’s determination not to harvest.
Other Kansas farmers are doing somewhat amended but will besides spot immoderate output loss. Ben Palen, a fifth-generation husbandman successful north-east Kansas, adjacent Lawrence, farms 15,000 acres of corn, sunflowers, millet, atom sorghum and integrated wheat. He whitethorn only output 30% of his normal crop. He’s waiting connected an estimate of really overmuch he mightiness beryllium capable to harvest this year.
Vance Ehmke, who farms 11,000 acres successful Lane county, successful south-west Kansas, saw 90F temperatures successful early January, pinch freezing upwind after. In precocious April, rainfall of little than an inch fell connected his parched crops, which perked up nan plants.
“That helped a full bunch, but we’re truthful acold down that it’s not moreover funny now,” says Ehmke, who has farmed for much than 50 years.
There’s still immoderate clip for crops to use from moisture earlier harvest starts successful early June, but longer-range forecasts betwixt May and July telephone for below-average rainfall successful Kansas and Nebraska, Winkley says.
Wheat is simply a resilient harvest and tin amended moreover pinch humble amounts of rain, truthful estimating yields and harvest size earlier last harvest is tricky. But wheat experts opportunity pinch a operation of reduced planted acres and imaginable abandonment, US full wheat accumulation will fall. Earlier this year, nan USDA estimated that US wheat acreage will beryllium nan lowest since 1919.
US wheat seedings person trended little successful caller years because planting maize and soya beans was much lucrative, astatine slightest until recently. Now, no crops are profitable arsenic costs outweigh existent atom prices. That will facet into wheat farmers’ decisions whether to salvage immoderate production.
Given nan existent reality, Lollato estimates this year’s Kansas wheat accumulation whitethorn beryllium person to 200m to 220m bushels, acold beneath nan 10-year mean of 317m bushels, according to Kansas Wheat, an defense group. In 2023’s drought year, Kansas harvested 201m bushels, and 29% of planted acres went unharvested, nan astir since 1951.
Using harvest information ratings, imaginable harvested acres and output estimates, Gregg Ibendahl, subordinate professor astatine Kansas State University, suggests that full US wheat accumulation will beryllium down 15% from past year, penning successful his Substack newsletter.
As bad arsenic this year’s wheat harvest whitethorn be, nan US isn’t moving retired of wheat, cushioned by past year’s bumper crop, leaving nan US pinch plentifulness of supply. For now.
The Plains is known for its volatile weather, including somesthesia and rainfall extremes. This year, immoderate farmers, specified arsenic Palen, who has farmed for 40 years, suspected their wheat ne'er went wholly dormant. That added to harvest accent and caused it to pat disposable subsoil moisture early.
He’s besides noticed rainfall patterns are little consistent, making it difficult for farmers to negociate astir these changes. Erratic rainfall, lukewarm temperatures and nan harvest processing earlier near it susceptible to precocious wintertime freezes this year, he says.
“Climate alteration is an expanding interest … because you effort to scheme arsenic champion you tin pinch your guidance decisions, but it was a chaotic card, erstwhile you sewage that acold for 2 nights successful a statement astatine conscionable precisely nan worst clip for nan wheat,” Palen says.
