Returning Production Effects in Practice

For galore years I’ve been doing previews of some Missouri’s shot squad and its opponents heading into a fixed season. And 1 of nan much notable stats that I mention is “returning production”.

As usual, my guidance stems from our dearly beloved blogfather Bill C. and his 5 factors that lend to his SP+ standing system. Returning accumulation is 1 of those sneaky stats that has been building successful consciousness and popularity, particularly fixed nan proliferation of transfers connected modern assemblage shot rosters. Bill C. has managed to activity a look that includes stats from transferring players - weighted somewhat otherwise than players who played for nan aforesaid squad they are returning to - successful bid to springiness a much meticulous look of nan existent accumulation that is either mislaid aliases retained.

The logic Bill C. utilizes this stat is because, typically, location is simply a dense relationship betwixt high-levels of returning accumulation and accrued value of a team, which usually translates to wins.

But earlier I spell complete Missouri’s returning accumulation for this upcoming season, I wanted everyone to beryllium capable to spot it’s effects successful nan modern era of assemblage football.

Below is past year’s Top 10 successful returning production, their 2024 triumph totals, their 2025 triumph total, and nan alteration betwixt nan two. Green intends improvement, reddish intends regression:

This mightiness not beryllium nan champion statement for “returning accumulation matters for wins!” because nan apical 2 teams, some fundamentally astatine 80% returning production, regressed by 3 wins from 2024 to 2025. Clemson’s regression came successful a decreased grounds successful one-loss games, akin to Arizona State’s rumor of being undefeated successful one-loss games successful nan 2024 regular play and past losing 3 specified games successful 2025. And that’s pinch ace precocious RP numbers!

But! Vanderbilt, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma each made monolithic leaps and either were successful - aliases ace adjacent - to nan Playoff. And Kennesaw State went from 2 wins to 10 wins and a convention championship! That’s beautiful great!

But if that chart’s not a convincing statement that RP numbers matter successful deciding which teams will log tons of wins, let’s drill down to conscionable nan SEC for a moment. Below I pulled nan aforesaid stuff: wide RP, 2024 wins, 2025 wins, and nan quality betwixt nan two:

You’re acquainted pinch Vandy, A&M, and Oklahoma. Auburn was a crap squad successful 2024, returned a bunch of guys, and remained nan aforesaid crap squad which…I conjecture not regressing is simply a win?

But look astatine nan teams classed 9th-16th successful returning production. As a portion this group mislaid an mean of 1.5 games much than they did nan erstwhile year, capped by South Carolina’s precipitous driblet from 9 wins to 4, and Arkansas’ 7 wins to 2. Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas - each nether 60% returning accumulation - regressed by aggregate games arsenic well.

I deliberation this is simply a amended floor plan arsenic it shows a much accordant image of what apical teams successful RP tin do successful a azygous year, particularly compared to teams that are little successful RP.

HOWEVER. This twelvemonth is simply a unsocial one, and a perchance milestone to track. Why? Because nan mean returning accumulation number for teams has slid acold down…like, nan lowest numbers since pre-COVID.

In 2021 - erstwhile nan COVID prize twelvemonth inflated each teams’ RP numbers - nan mean RP was 76.7%. For 2026: 53.7%.

You tin intelligibly spot that successful nan SEC’s 2026 breakdown:

South Carolina’s 68% returning accumulation would person classed 4th successful nan SEC past year. Now? It ranks 1st. Nationally, Notre Dame’s 72% returning accumulation would person classed 14th successful 2024 but, successful 2026, it’s nan champion successful nan country.

Transfer stats are trim successful half erstwhile applied to their caller teams, truthful losing a 1,000-yard rusher and replacing him pinch a portalled 1,000-yard rusher intends you still mislaid 500 yards of rushing production. And fixed nan prevalent proliferation of portalled players, that benignant of nonaccomplishment mightiness conscionable beryllium nan norm going forward.

So, yes, typically you’d look astatine nan highest classed teams successful RP and deliberation “oh man, they’ll astir apt amended by 3 wins this year”. But that was erstwhile nan highest classed teams successful RP would beryllium successful nan 70s aliases 80s percentages! Will that beryllium existent erstwhile they can’t moreover break 70%?

Like they were heading into nan 2024 season, Missouri is debased again successful returning production, there’s nary denying that. And it’s a large portion of nan logic why I’m concerned this could beryllium different span twelvemonth of 7-8-9 wins pinch nary changeable astatine nan SEC title aliases Playoff.

But if everyone other is debased arsenic well, does that alteration nan zero-sum triumph game? If nan delta betwixt 1st and 20th is person and everyone is getting harder resets than before, past does RP not power triumph totals arsenic much?

For now it’s an chartless but what we do cognize is that Missouri ranks 76th successful nan state successful returning accumulation and 12th successful nan SEC. The 49% RP would propose 1.5 much losses than past year, meaning Missouri would beryllium projected to beryllium successful nan 6-7 triumph range.

Or, maybe, Missouri pulls a reverse Clemson and alternatively of dropping wins pinch a batch of acquisition guys, it increases its triumph full without a batch of returning production!

Based connected these numbers Eli Drinkwitz and this 2026 squad person their activity trim retired for them, but that’s thing caller erstwhile you play successful nan SEC.

Next week we’ll look successful item astatine Missouri’s returning accumulation connected offense.