Padres' Mason Millers path to Cy Young requires unprecedented dominance from a closer

When Korn’s "Blind" blares from Petco Park’s speakers successful nan apical of nan ninth inning, nan San Diego Padres' force knows nan crippled is complete because Mason Miller is coming into nan game.

The lights astir nan ballpark flash connected and disconnected while nan euphony blares, moments earlier Miller turns nan lights disconnected connected whichever unfortunate hitters person to look him.

The 27-year-old Pittsburgh autochthonal has been a different benignant of ascendant truthful acold this season. In 11 games, he has a 1-0 grounds pinch a 0.00 ERA, signaling 8 saves successful 11.1 innings pitched. He has allowed conscionable 4 baserunners to commencement nan season, yielding conscionable 2 singles and 2 walks.

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San Diego Padres alleviation pitcher Mason Miller throws a transportation during nan ninth inning against nan Seattle Mariners astatine Petco Park successful San Diego, California, connected April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)

What makes Miller’s scoreless commencement to nan play moreover much impressive? He has faced 38 batters and struck retired 27 of them, bully for an otherworldly 71.1% strikeout percentage. He averages 21.4 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.

Yet, moreover if Miller keeps up his video game-like commencement to nan season, does he person a realistic chance to triumph nan Cy Young? Highly unlikely.

The Padres person presently has nan fifth-shortest likelihood to triumph nan NL Cy Young, according to Draftkings.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates’ Paul Skenes - +260
2. Los Angeles Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto - +380
3. Philadelphia Phillies’ Cristopher Sánchez - +550
4. Atlanta Braves’ Chris Sale - +950
5. Miller - +1500

So, what does Miller person to do to feasibly person a chance to triumph nan NL Cy Young? Something not seen before.

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San Diego Padres alleviation pitcher Mason Miller celebrates pinch catcher Luis Campusano aft defeating nan Seattle Mariners astatine Petco Park successful San Diego, California, connected April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)

First, let’s look backmost astatine nan erstwhile 9 relievers to triumph nan Cy Young Award.

Mike Marshall, Dodgers, 1974

Sparky Lyle, New York Yankees, 1977

Bruce Sutter, Chicago Cubs, 1979

Rollie Fingers, Milwaukee Brewers, 1981

Willie Hernandez, Detroit Tigers, 1984

Steve Bedrosian, Philadelphia Phillies, 1987

Mark Davis, Padres, 1989

Dennis Eckersley, for nan then-Oakland Athletics, 1992

Eric Gagné, Dodgers, 2003

We tin safely norm retired Marshall (208 innings pitched), Lyle (137 innings pitched), Sutter (101.1 innings pitched), and Hernandez (140.1 innings pitched) arsenic comparisons because Miller will not transportation astir arsenic galore innings this season. Miller is connected gait to propulsion astir 81 innings this season.

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San Diego Padres alleviation pitcher Mason Miller reacts aft defeating nan Los Angeles Angels astatine nan extremity of nan ninth inning successful Anaheim, Calif., connected April 18, 2026. (Caroline Brehman/AP Photo)

Miller’s projected 81 innings falls successful statement pinch nan different 5 relievers. Fingers threw 78 innings, Bedrosian threw 89, Davis threw 92.2, Eckersley threw 80, and Gagne threw 82.1.

Bedrosian had a 2.83 ERA successful his year, but Miller will person to transportation amended than that to triumph nan award. Paul Skenes, who won nan 2025 NL Cy Young, was 10-10 pinch a 1.97 ERA successful 187.2 innings sounded successful 32 starts.

Skenes, nan odds-on favourite astatine nan clip of this writing, presently has a 3-1 grounds successful 5 starts pinch a 3.27 ERA successful 22 innings pitched. His ERA is inflated because he allowed 5 runs and only recorded 2 outs against nan New York Mets connected Opening Day. In nan 4 starts since, he has allowed conscionable 3 runs.

So, let’s look further into Davis, Eckersley, and Gagné’s cases.

Davis, successful 62 games, had a 4-3 record, 44 saves, and a 1.85 ERA pinch 92 strikeouts successful 92.2 innings.

Eckersley, successful 69 games, had a 7-1 record, 51 saves, and a 1.91 ERA pinch 93 strikeouts successful 80 innings.

Gagné, successful 77 games, had a 2-3 grounds pinch 55 saves and a 1.20 ERA pinch 137 strikeouts successful 82.1 innings pitched.

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San Diego Padres alleviation pitcher Mason Miller reacts aft pitching successful nan ninth inning against nan Colorado Rockies astatine Petco Park successful San Diego, California, connected April 9, 2026. (Denis Poroy/Imagn Images)

All of those seasons are incredible, but if they happened successful 2026, they astir apt wouldn't triumph nan Cy Young. Baseball has changed excessively overmuch since erstwhile they won.

The 2 main differences betwixt eras are nan innings successful which starting pitchers propulsion and nan amount of elite relievers successful today’s game.

In 2003, 20 pitchers threw complete 200 innings. Last season, only 4 pitchers threw complete 200 innings, making starting pitchers who are some a) capable to propulsion 185-200 innings and b) pinch a precocious 1 and debased 2 ERA much valuable nowadays than they were then.

Combine that pinch much relievers coming retired of nan bullpen firing 100+ mph fastballs pinch wipeout off-speed stuff, it makes Miller not arsenic overmuch of an outlier arsenic he would person been 25 years ago. No reliever is dominating rather for illustration he is this season, but galore aren’t excessively acold off.

St. Louis Cardinals person Riley O'Brien has a 0.00 ERA successful 12 games pinch six saves successful 12.1 innings sounded pinch 14 strikeouts.

The voters aren’t arsenic taken to 1 person dominating coming for illustration they mightiness person 2 to 3 decades agone erstwhile not arsenic galore group were doing it.

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San Diego Padres alleviation pitcher Mason Miller throws a transportation during nan ninth inning against nan Seattle Mariners astatine Petco Park successful San Diego, California, connected April 16, 2026. (David Frerker/Imagn Images)

Unfortunately for Miller, he mightiness go different prima person who becomes a unfortunate of a caller era of shot successful Cy Young voting.

Since 2016, only 2 relievers person vanished higher than 4th spot successful Cy Young voting: Baltimore Orioles’ alleviation ace Zach Britton (4th) and Cleveland Guardians prima person Emmanuel Clase (3rd).

In 2016, Britton, successful 69 games, had a 2-1 grounds pinch a 0.54 ERA pinch 47 saves, striking retired 74 hitters successful 67 innings. A whopping 79% of balls put successful play against him were groundballs. Yet contempt that, he vanished fourth.

Boston Red Sox starter Rick Porcello won nan Cy Young that play instead. He went 22-4 pinch a 3.15 ERA successful 223 innings pitched.

In 2024, Clase, successful 74 games, had a 0.61 ERA pinch 47 saves while striking retired 66 hitters successful 74.1 innings.

Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal won nan Cy Young that play instead. He went 18-4 pinch a 2.39 ERA successful 192 innings. Kansas City Royals starter Seth Lugo vanished successful second, going 16-9 pinch a 3.00 ERA successful 206.2 innings pitched.

Reliever power isn’t weighted nan aforesaid successful today’s crippled arsenic it was then.

Aroldis Chapman had a 1.17 ERA and 32 saves for nan Boston Red Sox past play successful 67 games and vanished successful seventh place.

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San Diego Padres pitcher Mason Miller pitches against a Colorado Rockies batter during nan ninth inning of a shot crippled successful San Diego, California, connected April 9, 2026. (Gregory Bull/AP Photo)

This isn’t to opportunity Miller can’t triumph nan award, but he has a awesome uphill climb.

While he isn’t apt to onslaught retired 71.1% of batters he faces passim nan season, and he'll yet springiness up immoderate runs, he mightiness person to onslaught retired hitters astatine a humanities rate, while besides starring nan National League successful saves, to support nan voters’ attraction passim nan season.

This isn’t to opportunity that nan voters are unsighted to nan relievers' ascendant seasons complete nan past decade, but caller history shows hitters mightiness person a amended chance astatine getting connected guidelines against Miller than Miller does astatine winning nan Cy Young Award.

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