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Seafarer successful nan Gulf: We've not moved, and we're not alone...
Jillian Ambrose
The US-Israeli ceasefire pinch Iran is improbable to lead to a swift exit for nan hundreds of lipid and state tankers trapped successful nan Gulf, according to shipping experts.
One seafarer, who is aboard an lipid tanker stranded down nan strait of Hormuz, told nan Guardian that shipping companies would require much certainty earlier they effort to transit nan strait.
They said:
double quotation mark“We’re astatine anchor, adjacent dozens of loaded tankers. No-one has moved an inch.”
The seafarer said that bulk carriers, loaded pinch barren bulk specified arsenic cars and containers, had begun to move towards nan Gulf but that awesome shipping companies would beryllium improbable to move lipid and state tankers without nan go-ahead from security companies.
“No reputable company, pinch immoderate links to EU countries, will consequence moving without Lloyds and awesome insurers saying that they can,” they said.
“Transiting nan strait will require much certainty; insurers will request to work together to insure these cargoes and location would request to beryllium a amended knowing of really to salary “toll fees” to a state which is still officially sanctioned,” they added.
It will return respective days earlier nan effect of nan truce connected shipping becomes clear, according to Torbjorn Soltvedt, an expert astatine consequence intelligence institution Verisk Maplecroft.
Soltvedt said:
double quotation mark“Before nan war, regular transits done nan Strait of Hormuz exceeded 100 ships per time and immoderate summation from nan trickle of ships presently passing nan strait is apt to beryllium gradual.
“Two weeks will not beryllium capable to clear nan backlog moreover if location is simply a marked summation successful traffic.”
Graeme Wearden
Some nutrient commodity prices are falling today, arsenic nan US-Iran ceasefire eases fears of further disruption to fertiliser shipments that could lead to little harvest yields.
The most-active wheat statement connected nan Chicago Board of Trade has fallen 3% to $5.80-1/4 a bushel, Reuters reported.
Corn was down much than 0.8% to $4.45-1/2 a bushel.
A UN study warned past week that nutrient prices roseate sharply successful March arsenic warfare successful nan Middle East drove up power prices and freight costs astir nan world.
Trump: 50% tariffs connected countries supplying weapons to Iran
Graeme Wearden
Donald Trump is now threatening 50% tariffs connected immoderate state supplying weapons to Iran.
In a station connected Truth Social, he writes:
double quotation markA Country supplying Military Weapons to Iran will beryllium instantly tariffed, connected immoderate and each equipment sold to nan United States of America, 50%, effective immediately. There will beryllium nary exclusions aliases exemptions! President DJT
Ian Cheshire named arsenic chair of UK media regulator
UK businessman Ian Cheshire has been named arsenic nan caller chair of Ofcom, nan media regulator that has a increasing remit of protecting users of online platforms from harm.
The authorities said it had picked Cheshire, who chaired broadcaster Channel 4 until past April and is besides a erstwhile main executive of B&Q proprietor Kingfisher, which he ran from 2008 until 2015, and a erstwhile chair of Barclays Bank UK.
He will switch Michael Grade, nan erstwhile chair of nan BBC, who will guidelines down astatine nan extremity of April.
Cheshire presently chairs nan spot developer Landsec and nan backstage infirmary usability Spire Healthcare.
Technology caput Liz Kendall said
double quotation markSir Ian has a proven way grounds of starring analyzable organisations done periods of important change, and that is precisely nan benignant of activity Ofcom needs correct now
UK building suffers jump successful costs ostentation while orders and assurance deed by Iran war
Also today, UK building firms reported nan biggest-ever emergence successful costs ostentation from 1 period to nan adjacent successful March, while nan Iran warfare deed caller orders and assurance successful nan sector.
New orders recorded by building firms fell astatine nan fastest gait since November past twelvemonth and a caller betterment successful expectations for early output among businesses faded, according to a intimately watched monthly study from S&P Global.
Business activity successful nan assemblage continues to decline. Its UK building purchasing managers’ scale (PMI) header reference remained beneath nan 50.0 maturation period for nan 15th period successful a row, though it edged up somewhat to 45.6 from 44.5 successful February. Any reference beneath 50 indicates contraction.
The measurement of input costs ostentation leapt to 70.5 from 59.5 successful February, nan biggest jump since nan bid began successful 1997.
Last week, British manufacturers reported nan biggest month-on-month jump successful costs ostentation since October 1992.
The astir caller charismatic building information showed a 0.2% emergence successful output successful January aft shrinking 2% successful nan last 4th of 2025.
Tim Moore, economics head astatine S&P Global Market Intelligence, said immoderate businesses reported a turnaround successful infrastructure work, particularly successful nan power sector, but nan near-term outlook for nan assemblage arsenic a full was challenging.
Rising ostentation pressures, gloomy economical prospects and higher borrowing costs are nan main worries for building companies, while shipping delays caused by disruption successful nan Strait of Hormuz meant proviso concatenation capacity worsened for nan first clip since mid-2025.
The all-sector PMI – which includes manufacturers and services firms, which person reported akin fallout from nan warfare successful Iran – dropped to 49.9 from 52.9 successful February, its lowest level since past September.
Ten ships walk done strait of Hormuz truthful acold today
Lisa O’Carroll
Ten ships person passed done nan strait of Hormuz truthful acold today, 4 of which are Iranian, according to nan French world marine information locator AXSMarine.
There is nary anticipation that flows will return to anyplace adjacent normal coming arsenic each ships must person support from nan Iranians and nan shipping manufacture remains cautious, it said.
In peacetime, betwixt 50 and 100 ships would walk successful either guidance done nan straits pinch nan warfare reducing that to betwixt 2 and 7 alloy movements a time successful nan past 2 weeks aft nan Iranians gave nan greenish ray to definite nationalist emblem carriers.
AXS Marine said.
double quotation markInitially, Iran announced that ships owned by 5 nations (China, Russia, India, Iraq and Pakistan) would beryllium allowed to transit. Malaysian and Thai vessels were granted entree aft negotiated talks. On 2 April, Iran said it would let Philippine-flagged vessels to transverse pursuing further negotiations.
Oil prices successful biggest regular driblet since pandemic,
Today’s diminution successful lipid prices is nan biggest since nan pandemic – but analysts opportunity a return to pre-war levels will return time.
Brent crude has plunged 15.1% to $92.82 a tube connected news of nan two-week ceasefire, down $16.5 connected nan day.
This is nan biggest regular autumn successful percent position since nan onset of nan Covid pandemic successful April 2020, erstwhile nan value of lipid slumped 24%.
The autumn reflects alleviation that nan 1,000 lipid and state tankers and cargo ships that person been trapped successful nan Gulf since precocious February tin yet statesman moving.
However, markets are expecting Brent to stay supra $70 per tube done 2027. The world lipid benchmark was trading astatine astir $72 a tube earlier nan US and Israel launched aerial strikes connected Tehran connected 28 February.
James Hosie, equity expert astatine Shore Capital said:
double quotation markA two-week ceasefire statement betwixt nan US, Israel and Iran including nan opening of nan strait of Hormuz marks a invited measurement backmost from nan threatened escalation of nan conflict. Oil markets bespeak that alleviation pinch near-term Brent prices dropping c.15% overnight. Even if this ceasefire becomes a much lasting bid agreement, we do not expect lipid and state prices to return to their pre-conflict levels arsenic it will return clip for manufacture operations successful nan Persian Gulf to normalise.
There appears to beryllium small aliases nary spot betwixt Iran and nan US/Israel astatine this stage.
Based connected nan statements by each government, location are differing interpretations connected nan precise scope of nan ceasefire that creates a important consequence that ongoing negotiations extremity pinch a resumption of nan conflict, successful our view.
It remains to beryllium seen whether past night’s announcements are capable to springiness alloy owners and insurers nan assurance required move done nan Strait.
A return to normality will return time, he said.
double quotation markThe flows of oil, LNG and lipid products from nan Persian Gulf cannot quickly outpouring backmost to pre conflict levels. The harm to power accommodation crossed nan Gulf mixed pinch accumulation shutdowns (both precautionary and owed to retention constraints) intends that proviso could stay constrained for respective months, moreover if this two-week ceasefire ends pinch a imperishable bid deal.
We expect that to support nan outlook for lipid & state accumulation businesses pinch operations extracurricular nan region.
Pan-European stock scale jumps astir successful 4 years
Europe’s starring stock scale is connected way for its champion time successful 4 years.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 scale has risen by conscionable complete 4%, its biggest regular summation since 9 March 2022.
The German Dax has notched up nan biggest summation among awesome European banal markets, up 4.9%, while France’s CAC has jumped 4.5% and Italy’s FTSE MiB is up 4%.
The FTSE 100 successful London is 302 points up astatine 10,651, up 2.9%.
In Asia, South Korea’s Kospi had led nan measurement pinch a 7.5% regular jump, followed by Japan’s Nikkei pinch a 5.4% summation and nan CSI 300’s 3.5% summation successful China.
Delta Air Lines pulls maturation plans aft near-doubling of pitchy substance prices
Delta Air Lines has trim its profit outlook for nan 2nd 4th and pulled its maturation plans.
The US bearer said it was excessively early to update its full-year outlook, citing uncertainty caused by nan surge successful pitchy substance prices since nan commencement of nan Iran warfare successful precocious February. Jet substance prices person astir doubled, inflating airlines’ costs and prompting them to trim schedules.
The Atlanta-based hose forecast lower-than-expected profit for nan April to June quarter, and said it was removing each planned capacity maturation from that quarter, which will trim capacity by 3.5 percent points.
Delta added its capacity maturation plans now person a “downward bias until nan substance situation improves”.
Fuel accounts for astir a 4th of hose operating costs. The surge could lead to an manufacture shakeout, pinch weaker airlines much apt to trim capacity, return connected indebtedness aliases sorb deeper losses.
Delta main executive Ed Bastian said:
double quotation markIt’s going to abstracted nan winners and unit nan weaker players to return immoderate beautiful important steps to either get amended aliases thing other will happen.
Delta now expects adjusted net of $1.00 to $1.50 per stock successful nan June quarter. It expects to salary $4.30 a gallon for pitchy substance successful nan quarter, adding much than $2bn to its substance costs compared pinch a twelvemonth earlier.
So far, airlines person relied connected beardown recreation request to recoup portion of nan higher substance measure done fare increases, baggage fees and different ancillary charges. Bastian said Delta intends to retrieve astir 40% to 50% of higher substance costs successful nan 2nd 4th by lifting fares. It besides plans to raise fees to cheque successful bags, pursuing successful nan footsteps of rivals United Airlines and JetBlue Airways.
Bastian indicated that nan higher fees could beryllium permanent.
double quotation markAt this level of fuel, it’s difficult to telephone thing temporary.
He played down concerns that higher fares and fees could measurement connected demand, saying summons income person risen successful double digits twelvemonth connected twelvemonth complete nan past month.
RAC: Despite lipid value drop, outlook for UK drivers 'highly uncertain'
The RAC motoring group has warned that contempt nan crisp driblet successful crude lipid prices today, nan outlook for drivers successful nan UK remains “highly uncertain”.
The mean value of a litre of unleaded is now 157.71p, up 25p aliases 19% since nan warfare began. Diesel has exceeded nan 190p mark, costing an mean 190.62p a litre and is up 48p, aliases 34% since nan Iran warfare started connected 28 February. Both fuels are astatine their astir costly since precocious 2022.
RAC caput of argumentation Simon Williams said:
double quotation markThe conditional ceasefire announcement whitethorn person taken immoderate power retired of world lipid prices, but nan outlook for drivers successful nan UK remains highly uncertain. The champion dream successful nan short word is that pump prices extremity rising astatine nan complaint they person been and hopefully apical retired successful nan coming days.
Much will dangle connected nan stableness of nan ceasefire, whether lipid shipments tin move freely done nan strait of Hormuz, and nan longer‑term effect connected lipid accumulation crossed nan Gulf. As it is simply a sustained little lipid value – complete respective weeks, not conscionable a fewer days – that is required to bring wholesale substance costs down meaningfully.
Drivers should not expect importantly cheaper substance successful nan short term, though immoderate smaller independent forecourts buying connected a ‘spot’ ground whitethorn beryllium quicker to walk connected immoderate reductions.
Williams recommended that drivers shop astir for fuel.
Shell lipid trading profits soar amid Iran warfare but Qatar strikes deed state output
Shell is expected to study “significantly higher” profits from its commodity trading desks successful nan first 4th of this twelvemonth aft weeks of marketplace volatility triggered by nan Iran crisis.
The surge successful power commodity markets complete caller weeks is expected to thrust up trading results astatine Shell’s chemicals and products unit, which includes its main lipid trading desk.
Shell’s trading windfall is expected to beryllium peculiarly precocious successful its renewable power division. Earnings are expected to soar to betwixt $200m (£149m) and $700m successful nan first quarter, from astir $100m successful nan last 4th of past year, it predicted successful a trading update connected Wednesday.
Europe’s biggest lipid and state shaper besides expects little state accumulation for nan first quarter, compared pinch nan last 4th past year, because of nan effect of nan Middle East conflict connected its assets successful Qatar.
Lloyd's welcomes ceasefire but says region 'remains astatine heightened risk'
The Lloyd’s market, which is astatine nan bosom of world shipping insurance, has cautiously welcomed nan ceasefire.
Neil Roberts, caput of marine and aviation astatine nan Lloyd’s Market Association, which represents managing agents successful nan world’s oldest security market, said:
double quotation markFrom an security constituent of view, nan ceasefire is of people welcome. Time will show whether it is simply a region aliases a bid but, successful nan meantime, it is highly improbable that waste and acquisition into nan Gulf will simply resume. The region remains astatine heightened consequence pinch nary of nan underlying tensions resolved.
The losses already advised will beryllium dealt pinch arsenic normal and it tin beryllium expected that nan ships antecedently incapable to time off will now effort to do truthful arsenic soon arsenic nan owners and maestro deem it is safe to do so.
Like everyone else, we tin only await developments. Whatever happens, nan London security marketplace will proceed to support its clients.
Economist: Transit fees would mean 'de facto nationalisation' of strait
Neil Shearing, main economist astatine Capital Economics, said Iran’s scheme to complaint transit fees for ships to walk done nan strait of Hormuz would only person a humble effect connected world power priced but would magnitude to a “de facto nationalisation of nan shipping route”.
double quotation markThere are important hurdles to flooded earlier nan ceasefire statement betwixt nan US, Israel and Iran tin construe into a lasting extremity to nan war. But if it were to hold, it would move outcomes person to those envisaged successful our “baseline” forecast. In that scenario, lipid prices diminution but still extremity nan twelvemonth astatine $80 a barrel, header ostentation rises to astir 3-4% year-on-year successful nan US and Europe and, while GDP maturation slows successful astir awesome economies, nan wide economical harm extracurricular of nan region remains limited.
Talks betwixt nan US and Iran, connected nan ground of Tehran’s 10-point framework, which Washington has apparently accepted arsenic a starting point, are expected to statesman successful Islamabad connected Friday. The scheme contains respective provisions that are apt to beryllium difficult for some sides.
These see acceptance of Iran’s continued uranium enrichment, a request that US/western sanctions connected nan state beryllium lifted, and nan withdrawal of US forces from each bases successful nan region. Shearing said:
double quotation markIt is difficult to spot these points being agreed to successful full. Some discuss will beryllium required and, without it, there’s a bully chance nan statement will autumn isolated and nan conflict resumes.
Turning to markets, Shearing said:
double quotation markFor markets, nan astir captious rumor remains nan position of nan strait of Hormuz. The model appears to let nan afloat transition of lipid tankers done nan strait, but nan position nether which this would hap stay unclear. Some reports propose nan preamble of transit fees of astir $1m–2m per tanker.
Given that tankers typically transportation 1m–2m barrels of crude, specified fees would adhd astir $1 per tube to nan costs of lipid transported done nan Strait. This would truthful person only a humble effect connected world power prices though, successful practice, it could magnitude to a de facto partial nationalisation of nan shipping route.
If these issues tin beryllium resolved and a woody is reached, we would get person to Jefferies’ baseline scenario, which assumes nan conflict de-escalates by nan extremity of this period and power flows done nan strait resume on nan aforesaid timeframe.
double quotation markEven successful that scenario, however, location would still beryllium immoderate economical damage. The effect would beryllium astir terrible successful nan region itself, wherever we estimate that GDP could statement by astir 10% successful nan countries astir straight affected. The long-lasting harm to LNG accommodation successful Qatar intends it could beryllium disproportionately affected.
Meanwhile, though lipid and earthy state prices person fallen sharply today, they are apt to stay elevated comparative to earlier successful nan year. In our baseline forecast, Brent crude averages astir $95 per tube successful nan 2nd 4th earlier easing towards $80 by nan 4th quarter.
Inflation successful nan awesome precocious economies besides has further to rise. We expect it to highest astatine astir 4.5% successful nan UK and betwixt 3.5% and 4% successful nan US and nan euro-zone. US ostentation information owed later this week will supply an early denotation of really quickly those pressures are building.
Finally, nan complaint hikes presently priced into markets whitethorn beryllium excessive. If power prices stabilise and maturation holds up amended than feared, cardinal banks are improbable to present nan tightening now priced into markets, which successful move would flatten nan beforehand extremity of output curves. Equity markets are apt to ebb and travel according to developments successful nan talks complete nan adjacent mates of weeks but successful our baseline script a betterment successful consequence appetite pushes nan S&P 500 supra 7,000 by nan mediate of nan year.
