Oil hits highest level since US-Iran ceasefire began, as conflict hurts Gulf crude production – business live

Oil hits highest level since US-Iran ceasefire began

The lipid value has deed its highest level since nan US and Iran agreed a ceasefire much than 2 weeks ago.

Brent crude traded arsenic precocious arsenic $107.48 a tube this morning, its highest level since 7 April, nan time erstwhile nan US and Iran agreed to a conditional ceasefire.

The Brent crude lipid value complete nan past 3 months Photograph: LSEG

That woody included a impermanent reopening of nan strait of Hormuz, aft Donald Trump had threatened Iran pinch wide destruction.

But pinch nan strait still mostly blockaged, and lipid accumulation successful nan region having much than halved since nan warfare began (see earlier post), worry complete nan conflict is rising again today.

Brent crude had been trading astir $72 a tube earlier nan warfare began, and deed $119.50 successful early March (corrected).

Oil is up coming contempt Trump announcing past nighttime that a ceasefire betwixt Israel and Lebanon would beryllium extended by 3 weeks.

But, when asked really agelong he was consenting to hold for a semipermanent bid woody pinch Iran, Trump replied: “Don’t unreserved me”.

The risks to nan lipid value “remain tilted to nan upside”, Fawad Razaqzada, marketplace expert astatine Forex.com, explains, arsenic nan US-Iran stalemate drags on.

Razaqzada adds:

double quotation mark“Oil has been connected a patient upward trajectory this week, intelligibly driven by nan illness of planned talks betwixt nan US and Iran.

Tehran has refused to prosecute while nan naval blockade remains successful place, fuelling concerns complete tightening proviso and pushing prices good supra $100 per tube again.

There was a little region erstwhile Trump opted to widen nan ceasefire, but nan effect proved short-lived. With nary clear timeline for negotiations and some sides entrenched, markets stay successful limbo — and prices proceed to grind higher.”

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Here’s our news communicative astir nan US Department of Justice dropping its criminal investigation against Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, clearing nan way for Donald Trump’s caller nominee for chair to beryllium confirmed.

Iran conflict knocks US user confidence

US user assurance has dropped this month, arsenic fears turn that nan Iran warfare is pushing up costs.

The University of Michigan’s user sentiment scale has dropped this month, down 3.5 points to 49.8 points.

The measures of existent economical conditions and of user expectations some declined during April.

Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu said levels of user morale were now comparable to nan trough seen successful June 2022, adding:

double quotation markDecreases successful sentiment were seen crossed governmental party, income, age, and education.

Expected business conditions declined for some short and agelong clip horizons, astir matching year-ago readings erstwhile nan reciprocal tariff authorities was implemented. After nan two-week cease-fire was announced and state prices softened a touch, sentiment recovered a humble information of its early-month losses.

The Iran conflict appears to power user views chiefly done shocks to gasoline and perchance different prices. In contrast, subject and negotiated developments that do not assistance proviso constraints aliases little power prices are improbable to buoy consumers.

‘The harm is done’: world lipid situation has changed fossil substance manufacture for ever, IEA main says

The lipid situation triggered by nan Iran warfare has changed nan fossil substance manufacture for ever, turning countries distant from fossil fuels to unafraid power supplies, nan world’s starring power economist has said.

Fatih Birol, nan executive head of nan International Energy Agency (IEA), besides said that, contempt pressure, nan UK should forgo overmuch of its imaginable North Sea description .

Speaking exclusively to nan Guardian, Birol said a cardinal effect of nan US-Israel warfare connected Iran was that countries would suffer spot successful fossil fuels and request for them would reduce.

“Their cognition of consequence and reliability will change. Governments will reappraisal their power strategies. There will beryllium a important boost to renewables and atomic powerfulness and a further displacement towards a much electrified future,” he said. “And this will trim into nan main markets for oil.”

Justice Dept to adjacent investigation into Powell complete Federal Reserve renovations

The US justness section is closing nan criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell complete costs overruns successful renovations astatine nan Fed.

The move, announced by US Attorney for DC Jeanine Pirro, appears to clear nan measurement for Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s prime to win Powell, to get confirmed for nan role.

The investigation, announced successful January, was examining whether Powell lied to Congress astir nan scope of a task to renovate nan Fed’s buildings.

Today, Pirro says location will beryllium an soul investigation led by nan cardinal bank’s inspector wide into nan project.

The US tech-focused Nasdaq scale has deed a caller grounds precocious successful early trading, lifted by those spot stocks….

Intel shares surge aft blowout results

Wall Street has opened a small higher, lifted by a beardown rally successful spot stocks.

Intel has surged by 27% astatine nan commencement of trading, aft smashing revenues expectations past nighttime arsenic nan AI roar drives request for its products.

Intel predicted it would execute revenues of betwixt $13.8bn and $14.8bn successful nan existent quarter, up of expert expectations of astir $13bn.

Other semiconductor stocks are rallying excessively – pinch Qualcomm jumping 12% and AMD up by 10.5%.

This has helped to assistance nan S&P 500 stock scale by 12 points, aliases 0.17%, to 7,120 astatine nan commencement of trading successful New York.

RAC: Pump prices falling but slower than anticipated.

There’s an aged saying that nan value of centrifugal substance goes up for illustration a rocket, and down for illustration a feather.

And it appears to beryllium coming existent again.

New information from nan RAC shows that nan mean value of petrol has dipped by conscionable 0.08p coming to 157.22p a litre; that’s stil 18.4% higher than erstwhile nan Iran warfare began.

Diesel is down 0.2p astatine 189.59p a litre, 33% higher than astatine nan extremity of February.

RAC caput of argumentation Simon Williams says unit prices are lagging falls successful wholesale substance prices:

double quotation mark“Pump prices aren’t falling astatine nan complaint that our study of wholesale information indicates they should, pinch petrol only having dropped a penny a litre since 15 April and diesel by 2p. Interestingly, we statement that prices successful Northern Ireland person reduced much quickly arsenic unleaded has already travel down by 2p and diesel by much than 4p successful nan past week.

“The truth nan value of lipid went backmost supra $100 connected Wednesday having been beneath that people for 10 days is nary uncertainty origin for interest for retailers. Despite this nan costs of some fuels connected nan wholesale marketplace is still little than it has been, peculiarly truthful for diesel - truthful drivers really ought to spot immoderate cheaper prices astatine nan forecourts successful nan coming days.”

Oil has now slipped back, pursuing reports that Iranian overseas curate Abbas Araghchi is expected to recreation to Pakistan for talks pinch nan US this weekend.

Brent crude has now dipped beneath $105 a barrel, somewhat little connected nan day.

Procter & Gamble has go nan latest institution to pass that nan Iran warfare is pushing up its costs.

In its latest financial results, P&G flagged that now expects higher commodity costs to costs it astir $150m aft taxation this financial year, connected apical of $400, of higher costs from tariffs.

Despite that, P&G is sticking pinch its erstwhile financial guidance, aft reporting income maturation of 7% successful nan past quarter.

Shailesh Jejurikar, president and main executive serviceman of P&G, says:

double quotation mark“We’re expanding investments to accelerate momentum pinch consumers contempt nan challenging geopolitical and economical environment, while still maintaining our guidance ranges for nan fiscal year.

We proceed to judge nan champion way to sustainable, balanced maturation is by strengthening execution of our integrated maturation strategy. We are assured successful nan advancement we’re making and excited astir nan longer-term opportunity to leverage P&G’s strengths and unsocial capabilities to create nan CPG [consumer packaged goods] institution of nan future.”

Oil hits highest level since US-Iran ceasefire began

The lipid value has deed its highest level since nan US and Iran agreed a ceasefire much than 2 weeks ago.

Brent crude traded arsenic precocious arsenic $107.48 a tube this morning, its highest level since 7 April, nan time erstwhile nan US and Iran agreed to a conditional ceasefire.

The Brent crude lipid value complete nan past 3 months Photograph: LSEG

That woody included a impermanent reopening of nan strait of Hormuz, aft Donald Trump had threatened Iran pinch wide destruction.

But pinch nan strait still mostly blockaged, and lipid accumulation successful nan region having much than halved since nan warfare began (see earlier post), worry complete nan conflict is rising again today.

Brent crude had been trading astir $72 a tube earlier nan warfare began, and deed $119.50 successful early March (corrected).

Oil is up coming contempt Trump announcing past nighttime that a ceasefire betwixt Israel and Lebanon would beryllium extended by 3 weeks.

But, when asked really agelong he was consenting to hold for a semipermanent bid woody pinch Iran, Trump replied: “Don’t unreserved me”.

The risks to nan lipid value “remain tilted to nan upside”, Fawad Razaqzada, marketplace expert astatine Forex.com, explains, arsenic nan US-Iran stalemate drags on.

Razaqzada adds:

double quotation mark“Oil has been connected a patient upward trajectory this week, intelligibly driven by nan illness of planned talks betwixt nan US and Iran.

Tehran has refused to prosecute while nan naval blockade remains successful place, fuelling concerns complete tightening proviso and pushing prices good supra $100 per tube again.

There was a little region erstwhile Trump opted to widen nan ceasefire, but nan effect proved short-lived. With nary clear timeline for negotiations and some sides entrenched, markets stay successful limbo — and prices proceed to grind higher.”

Fertiliser supplies deed by 'global urea proviso shock'

Fertiliser shaper Yara has warned of tight proviso compared to request successful nan months up arsenic nan blockage of nan strait of Hormuz had led to a “global urea proviso shock”.

The Norwegian patient said affected accumulation successful respective countries, and this had been “further amplified by Russian nitrogen plants affected by drone attacks”.

The blockage of nan Strait of Hormuz disrupts astir 1/3 of world traded urea, arsenic good arsenic different cardinal earthy materials for fertilizer accumulation including earthy gas, ammonia, phosphates and sulphur.

The institution revealed a amended than expected 40% emergence successful quarterly underlying profits to $898m arsenic nan value of fertiliser increased. It said it was capable to support precocious accumulation levels “enabling reliable supply” of fertiliser by being elastic astir wherever it originated ammonia erstwhile state prices roseate successful Europe.

Svein Tore Holsether, nan main executive of Yara, said:

double quotation mark“Global harvest prices are only marginally expanding while input costs person increased, and that’s putting an further load connected farmers, and farmers crossed nan world did not person robust ​margins earlier this.”

Russia’s cardinal slope has trim liking rates successful an effort to boost economical growth.

The Bank of Russia has lowered its benchmark complaint by 50 ground points, aliases half a percent point, to 14.50%.

The simplification follows signs that Russia’s system is ailing contempt nan fiscal boost from higher lipid prices.

The Bank of Russia says:

double quotation markAccording to high-frequency data, nan Russian economy slowed successful 2026 Q1, successful portion owed to nan accommodation to nan earlier taxation changes.

The different contributors were a less number of business days and unfavourable upwind conditions. Investment activity remains subdued. Consumer request maturation continues to decelerate, contempt a flimsy pick-up successful March.

Taking into relationship that economical activity dynamics successful 2026 Q1 were mostly driven by one-off factors, nan Bank of Russia has retained its GDP maturation forecast for 2026 astatine 0.5–1.5%.

European markets caput for first play nonaccomplishment since precocious March

European banal markets are connected way for their first play nonaccomplishment successful complete 1 month.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 scale has dropped by almost 2.8% truthful acold this week. That would beryllium its first play diminution since 16-20 March, aft 4 weeks of gains.

Today, nan Stoxx 600 is down astir 0.9%, pinch Germany’s Dax losing 0.5% and France’s CAC 40 down 1.2%. In London, nan FTSE 100 is now down 66 points aliases -0.64%.

Markets are entering nan last time of nan trading week successful a cautious mood, says Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank:

double quotation markUS-Iran tensions show nary signs of easing while nan Strait of Hormuz remains fundamentally closed.

Ahead of nan weekend, location person been nary signs of further talks, pinch Trump saying nan “I don’t want to unreserved myself” erstwhile it comes to making a deal, while besides claiming that “whatever I’m doing, it seems to beryllium moving very well”. Meanwhile, we saw Iran’s President, Foreign Minister and Parliamentary Speaker stock akin messages of authorities “unity” successful short succession past night, aft Trump posts claimed “infighting” betwixt “Hardliners” and “Moderates” successful Iran.

The rhetoric had besides leant successful an escalatory guidance earlier yesterday, pinch Trump posting that he’d ordered nan US Navy to sprout boats placing mines successful nan Strait of Hormuz. So each that has near lingering uncertainty, moreover arsenic Israel and Lebanon person agreed overnight to widen their ceasefire by 3 weeks according to nan White House.

Hapag-Lloyd says 1 vessel has crossed strait of Hormuz

Container shipping group Hapag-Lloyd has reported that 1 of its ships has crossed nan Strait of Hormuz but did not person immoderate accusation connected nan circumstances aliases timing, Reuters reports.

That leaves 4 Hapag ships successful nan Gulf, which nan institution says are staffed pinch 100 crew, who are well-supplied pinch nutrient and water.

Goldman: Gulf lipid proviso is 57% beneath pre-war levels

Gulf crude lipid accumulation has much than halved since nan Iran warfare began, a caller study from Goldman Sachs shows.

Goldman person calculated that lipid accumulation has fallen by 14.5 cardinal barrels per day, aliases 57%, from pre-war levels, owed to nan closure of nan strait of Hormuz and attacks connected power accumulation accommodation successful nan region.

Illustration: Goldman Sachs

The Investment Bank predicts that Gulf accumulation is apt to mostly retrieve wrong a fewer months of reopening assuming:

1. no renewed strikes connected lipid assets and

2. a afloat and safe reopening of nan Strait successful coming months.

But, they besides spot “significant risks” that nan past limb of nan betterment will return importantly longer and whitethorn not afloat materialize, particularly if nan Strait were to stay closed for overmuch longer.

Interestingly, Goldman estimate that nan disposable quiet tanker capacity successful nan Gulf has halved since nan commencement of nan war, which would make it harder to boost proviso erstwhile a bid woody is reached.

Goldman opportunity that erstwhile nan Strait safely re-opens, nan cardinal imaginable constraints connected accumulation will apt be

1. availability of pipeline capacity and quiet vessels to destock antecedently produced oil, and

2. availability of materials and workers for section workovers, and

3. well travel rates

UK companies ramp up trading value expectations aft surge successful power prices

UK companies are expecting to hike prices astatine a overmuch faster complaint complete nan adjacent year, arsenic nan Iran warfare drives up power costs.

New information from nan Bank of England shows that companies expect to person raised prices by 4.4% by April 2027.

Back successful February, firms had only expected to person raised their prices by 3.4% successful a year’s time.

The increases suggests firms are “adjusting their expectations arsenic a consequence of nan caller increases successful power prices,” nan Bank says.

Its latest study of main financial officers from small, mean and ample UK businesses besides recovered that expectations for year-ahead CPI ostentation roseate to 3.5% successful nan 3 months to April, up from 3.1% successful nan 3 months to March.

UK owe rates gaffe backmost again

The mean liking rates connected UK mortgages are continuing to gaffe backmost from nan highs group earlier this month.

Data supplier Moneyfacts reports:

• The mean 2-year fixed residential owe complaint coming is 5.81%. This is down from 5.82% nan erstwhile moving day.

• The mean 5-year fixed residential owe complaint coming is 5.70%. This is down from 5.72% nan erstwhile moving day.