Next US move on Iran: Seize Kharg Island, secure uranium or risk ground war escalation

As nan U.S.–Iran warfare enters a caller phase, nan scope of options now being discussed stretches from hitting Iran’s economical and lipid lifeline astatine Kharg Island to nan acold much vulnerable imaginable of a crushed invasion, aliases a narrower cognition focused connected Iran’s atomic material. 

The urgency comes arsenic caller U.S. strikes person degraded parts of Iran’s subject infrastructure without collapsing nan regime, raising unit connected nan Trump management to determine what comes next. 

Each action carries important risks: disrupting Kharg Island could daze world lipid markets, a crushed penetration could tie nan U.S. into a prolonged location war, and operations targeting atomic worldly could trigger escalation while still failing to destruct nan threat. 

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What happens adjacent could find not only nan trajectory of nan conflict pinch Iran, but besides nan stableness of world power proviso and nan early of Tehran’s atomic program.

Recent U.S. strikes already deed subject targets connected Kharg Island, a mini land successful nan Persian Gulf that serves arsenic Iran’s main lipid export terminal that has emerged arsenic a cardinal unit constituent successful nan conflict, while sparing its lipid infrastructure, underscoring conscionable really consequential nan adjacent move could be.

Seizing aliases neutralizing Kharg Island

Kharg Island is nan centerpiece of Iran’s lipid export system. The land handles astir 90% of Iran’s lipid exports, and Iran precocious has been exporting astir 1.1 cardinal to 1.5 cardinal barrels of lipid per day, mostly to China. 

Recent U.S. strikes connected Kharg targeted subject installations while leaving cardinal lipid accommodation intact — a motion that Washington is trying to sphere a awesome unit constituent without instantly detonating world lipid markets.

Abdullah Aljunaid, a Bahraini analyst, told Fox News Digital that aft Iran’s subject capabilities were weakened, nan U.S. attraction could displacement to economical unit connected Iran. 

"The Iranian subject capacity and violative abilities person been wholly degraded, truthful we request to astir apt do thing else," Aljunaid said.

A outer image shows nan Strait of Hormuz, a cardinal maritime transition connecting nan Persian Gulf to nan Gulf of Oman, captious for world power supply. (Amanda Macias/Fox News Digital)

Aljunaid pointed to cardinal strategical sites, including Bushehr — a coastal metropolis successful confederate Iran connected nan Persian Gulf that hosts nan country’s only operational atomic powerfulness works and a cardinal larboard — and Kharg Island, Iran’s main lipid export hub.

"We request to return definite strategical assets — surface science — for illustration Bushehr and Kharg, retired of nan equation," he said. "Those two, particularly Kharg, correspond nan jewel of nan crown, and without that, Iran’s economical expertise to finance itself is going to beryllium dead."

He added that power complete cardinal maritime choke points could further displacement nan balance. 

"If nan U.S. decided to take Bushehr astatine nan rima of nan Strait of Hormuz, past I judge we tin really spot a different equation, forcing nan Iranians to travel to nan negotiating array connected our position — nan U.S. terms, and astir apt nan remainder of nan world."

Retired Gen. Jack Keane has based on that nan U.S. could return Iran’s main lipid export hub if it chose to do so, but truthful acold has chosen "not to return that now," he said connected Fox News’ "Sunday Morning Futures."

Satellite position of Kharg Island, located successful nan Persian Gulf disconnected nan seashore of Iran. (Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2024)

Keane said specified a move would efficaciously put nan Iranian authorities successful "checkmate," fixed really heavy its system depends connected nan island. 

"Now we (would) ain each of their awesome assets," Keane said. "It's 50% of their budget, 60% of nan revenue, 80, 90% of nan distribution points for their oil." 

That position reflects nan logic down a Kharg scenario: disable nan regime’s rate travel without launching a full-scale warfare crossed Iran’s interior. At nan aforesaid time, nan truth that Kharg’s lipid infrastructure was reportedly spared suggests Washington thinks taking nan land afloat offline could nonstop energy prices sharply higher and shingle world markets. 

Kharg’s accommodation see awesome retention capacity and immoderate superior disruption location could region up to astir 2 cardinal barrels a time from world supply. 

There besides is simply a nonkinetic type of this scenario. 

In an study shared pinch Fox News Digital, Rick Clay, who served arsenic a elder lawman advisor successful Iraq from 2003 to 2009, based on that maritime security tin usability arsenic a strategical choke point. 

His statement is that a tanker without recognized sum cannot easy dock, finance cargo aliases run successful compliant markets, meaning nan United States could pressure Iran’s export strategy financially moreover without physically seizing nan island.

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The adjacent shape of nan warfare whitethorn dangle connected which of those risks Washington is consenting to take. (istock)

A crushed penetration of ‘Fortress Iran’

Public analyses person agelong described Iran’s surface science arsenic profoundly unfavorable to invading armies, pinch upland barriers and godforsaken terrain complicating immoderate large-scale advance. 

Historical comparisons often constituent to Iraq’s grounded 1980 penetration of Iran, which turned into a agelong and bloody warfare alternatively than nan speedy triumph Saddam Hussein expected.

The word "Fortress Iran" is often utilized by analysts to picture nan country’s earthy defenses — a operation of immense upland ranges, including nan Zagros and Alborz, on pinch deserts and difficult terrain that person historically made penetration and business highly challenging.

For those reasons, analysts opportunity a crushed penetration remains nan astir utmost — and slightest plausible — path, fixed Iran’s size, terrain and history.

Aljunaid made a akin point, noting that moreover nan 1991 liberation of Kuwait required much than half a cardinal troops, and informing that a warfare wrong Iran would beryllium exponentially much complicated.

That interest is reinforced by nan existent authorities of nan conflict. 

Despite sustained U.S.-Israeli strikes and dense harm to Iran’s subject infrastructure, nan authorities itself remains intact and much hardline, The Washington Post reported, pinch nan Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps consolidating powerfulness alternatively than collapsing. 

In different words, aerial superiority has not translated into authorities collapse, which makes nan leap to business moreover harder to imagine.

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Maxar Technologies imagery captures nan aftermath of U.S. and Israeli strikes connected Iran's Fordow uranium facility, revealing damaged tunnels and repair operations underway. (Maxar Technologies)

"We’re not going to put troops connected nan mainland," Clay said. "The only troops you mightiness see, if anything, would beryllium to return retired those 3 islands. That’s it."

He added that location is "no appetite" for a sustained crushed beingness wrong Iran, arguing that immoderate soul alteration would yet dangle connected nan Iranian people.

 "It’s going to beryllium successful nan Iranians’ hands astatine that constituent — nan Iranian group — whether they emergence up," he said. "We’ve done damage. We’re still going to do immoderate much damage. We’re not done." 

Pointed ops to unafraid uranium

A 3rd script would purpose not astatine occupying territory, but astatine Iran's atomic programme itself. 

A narrower cognition apt would impact targeting Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles and profoundly buried accommodation — perchance including efforts to locate, unafraid aliases disable atomic worldly that cannot beryllium destroyed from nan air.

Although President Donald Trump said nan June 2025 U.S. strikes had "obliterated" cardinal atomic sites, analysts statement that captious elements of Iran’s programme — peculiarly enriched uranium stockpiles and profoundly buried accommodation — apt stay intact.

Iran is believed to person astir 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, according to nan International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), pinch much than 200 kilograms apt stored successful nan underground Isfahan passageway complex, Reuters reported March 9.

That matters because nan worldly is mini capable to hide and move, dissimilar lipid infrastructure, and immoderate of these profoundly buried accommodation are believed to person survived accepted aerial attacks — raising nan anticipation that securing aliases neutralizing atomic worldly could require much targeted, specialized operations.

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Smoke rises aft explosions were reported successful Tehran, Iran, March 2, 2026. (Contributor/Getty Images)

Kharg Island offers a measurement to compression Iran’s economy. A crushed penetration offers nan anticipation of a decisive unit astatine bonzer cost. Targeted operations against atomic instrumentality connection a narrower path, but 1 pinch precocious operational consequence and nary guarantee of finality. 

The adjacent shape of nan warfare whitethorn dangle connected which of those risks Washington is consenting to take.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told Fox News Digital, "President Trump and nan management person intelligibly outlined nan goals of Operation Epic Fury: destruct Iran’s ballistic missiles and accumulation capacity, demolish their navy, extremity their expertise to limb proxies, and forestall them from ever obtaining a atomic weapon." 

"This effort will proceed until President Trump, arsenic commandant successful chief, determines that nan goals of nan operation, including for Iran to nary longer airs a subject threat, person been afloat realized," she added. 

The Pentagon chose not to supply a comment. 

Reuters contributed to this report.