More than 90% of Iranian missiles intercepted, but a dangerous imbalance is emerging

EXCLUSIVE: As U.S., Israeli and allied forces proceed to intercept nan immense mostly of Iranian missiles and drones, a caller study and master study uncover a increasing interest down nan header success: nan costs and sustainability of nan defense itself.

More than 90% of Iranian projectiles person been intercepted during nan war, according to a report obtained by Fox News Digital from nan Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), acknowledgment to a layered location aerial defense strategy built during years of coordination.

But beneath that occurrence lies a widening imbalance that could style nan adjacent shape of nan conflict.

The study highlights a captious trend: Iran’s slightest costly weapons are proving nan astir disruptive and are draining costly U.S. and Israeli interceptors.

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U.S. Central Command released footage showing strikes connected Iranian mobile rocket launchers. (@CENTCOM via X)

The existent aerial defense architecture, integrating U.S., Israeli and Arab systems, has proven highly effective astatine stopping incoming threats. Early informing systems, shared radar sum and pre-positioned assets person allowed aggregate countries to activity together to conclusion Iranian missiles and drones.

During a property briefing connected Wednesday, property caput Karoline Leavitt said, "More than 9,000 force targets person been struck to day … Iran's ballistic rocket attacks and drone attacks are down by astir 90%," she said, adding that U.S. forces person besides destroyed much than 140 Iranian naval vessels, including astir 50 excavation layers.

A surge of U.S. assets earlier nan war, including Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), batteries, Patriot systems, 2 bearer onslaught groups and astir 200 combatant aircraft, helped sorb Iran’s opening salvos and support precocious interception rates, according to JINSA's report.

But Ari Cicurel, subordinate head of overseas argumentation astatine JINSA and writer of nan report, said focusing only connected interception percentages misses nan bigger picture.

"Overall precocious rocket and drone interception rates person been important but only show portion of nan story," Cicurel told Fox News Digital. "Iran came into this warfare pinch a deliberate scheme to dismantle nan architecture that makes those intercepts possible. It has struck energy infrastructure to upset markets and utilized cluster munitions to execute higher deed rates."

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Israel's aerial defense targets Iranian missiles successful nan entity of Tel Aviv successful Israel,  on June 16, 2025. (MATAN GOLAN/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Danny Citrinowicz, a Middle East and nationalist information master astatine Institute for National Security Studies and a nonresident chap astatine nan Atlantic Council, said that imbalance is astatine nan bosom of nan problem. 

"There needs to beryllium a alteration successful nan equation," he told Fox News Digital. "The Iranians are launching drones that costs astir $30,000, and we are utilizing missiles that costs millions of dollars to intercept them. That spread is simply a very problematic one."

He added that nan aforesaid move applies to ballistic missiles.

"Building a rocket successful Iran whitethorn costs a fewer 100 1000 dollars, while nan interceptor costs millions, particularly erstwhile we talk astir systems for illustration Arrow," he said. "It’s easier and quicker to nutrient missiles than it is to build interceptors. That’s not a secret."

Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile strategy intercepts rockets launched from nan Gaza Strip, arsenic seen from nan metropolis of Ashkelon, Israel, Oct. 9, 2023.  (Amir Cohen/Reuters)

This costs imbalance is feeding into a broader concern: interceptor depletion.

The JINSA study warns that stockpiles crossed nan region are already nether strain. Some Gulf states person utilized a important information of their interceptor inventories, pinch estimates suggesting Bahrain whitethorn person expended up to 87% of its Patriot missiles, nan United Arab Emirates and Kuwait person utilized astir 75% and Qatar has utilized astir 40%. 

Israel is also facing mounting pressure. While officials person not publically confirmed stockpile levels, nan study notes signs of rationing, including decisions not to intercept definite cluster-munition threats successful bid to conserve much precocious interceptors.

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The remains of a Russian-made, Iran-designed Shahed-136 drone, known successful Russia arsenic a Geran-2, are displayed pinch different recovered drones, glide bombs, missiles and rockets successful Kharkiv connected July 30, 2025. (Scott Peterson/Getty Images)

Citrinowicz said that dynamics go much acute nan longer nan warfare continues.

"We are now several weeks into nan war, and moreover if nan salvos are limited, nan rumor of interceptors becomes much important complete time," he said.

Iran has adapted its strategies accordingly, shifting from ample barrages to smaller, much predominant attacks designed to support changeless unit while gradually draining protect resources.

These persistent salvos, moreover if constricted successful size, unit defenders to stay connected precocious alert and proceed expending interceptors, accelerating nan depletion of already finite stockpiles.

The study underscores that drones airs a unsocial situation compared to ballistic missiles.

Unlike missiles, which trust connected ample launchers and time off detectable signatures, drones tin beryllium launched from mobile platforms and tin alert astatine debased altitudes that make them harder for radar systems to detect.

For example, A Shahed-136 weighs astir 200 kilograms and launches from an angled obstruction mounted connected a pickup truck, aft which nan unit tin quickly relocate. That simpler motorboat floor plan makes it easier for Iran to disperse, conceal and occurrence nether pressure, nan study stated.

Iran besides has incorporated lessons from nan warfare successful Ukraine, deploying much precocious drones, including those guided by fiber-optic cables that are immune to physics jamming, and faster variants powered by pitchy engines.

These innovations complicate interception timelines and summation nan likelihood of successful strikes, moreover against different effective defense systems.

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Missiles launched from Iran are intercepted arsenic seen from Tel Aviv, Israel, June 15, 2025. (REUTERS/Tomer Neuberg)

Despite these challenges, nan study emphasizes that nan protect architecture has not failed.

"The architecture has held, but nan trajectory is moving successful nan incorrect direction," Cicurel said. "Reversing it requires moving assets to wherever nan unit is greatest, hunting Iranian launchers and drones much aggressively, and convoying ships done nan Gulf."

Even pinch precocious interception rates, nan broader effect of nan attacks is being felt.

Iranian strikes connected power infrastructure and shipping person driven lipid prices higher and disrupted postulation done nan Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating that aerial defense unsocial cannot forestall economical and strategical consequences.

The emerging image is not 1 of failing defenses, but of a strategy nether increasing strain.

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An detonation is reported adjacent nan U.S. Consulate and nan Erbil International Airport area, wherever a U.S. subject guidelines is besides located, successful Erbil, Iraq, pinch occurrence breaking retired and heavy fume rising pursuing nan blast, connected march 12, 2026.  (Ahsan Mohammed Ahmed Ahmed/Anadolu via Getty Images)

As agelong arsenic Iran tin nutrient inexpensive drones and missiles faster than nan U.S., Israel and their partners tin nutrient interceptors, nan equilibrium whitethorn gradually shift.

"As agelong arsenic nan warfare continues," Citrinowicz said, "the cardinal mobility will beryllium whether Iran tin nutrient missiles faster than we tin nutrient interceptors."