Mizzou surprisingly makes the top 20 in 2026 SP+

As Mizzou students return to field from outpouring break and nan shot squad freshly vanished pinch outpouring practice, nan collected assemblage shot regard originates to displacement from improvement to prognostication. Rock M Nation godfather and existent ESPN writer and expert Bill Connelly conscionable released his first batch of SP+ ratings for nan 2026 play and nan Tigers timepiece successful astatine No. 20 nationally.

To beryllium honest, location are fewer bigger Mizzou homers than myself, but erstwhile I saw nan Tigers cheque successful arsenic highly arsenic they did successful BillC’s first batch, my first guidance was… somewhat dubious.

Following nan Tiger roster turnover passim nan offseason makes it clear conscionable really overmuch nan Tigers are replacing heading into 2026. Ten protect starters from past year’s fantabulous portion are gone. The secondary has been almost wholly rebuilt. The beforehand 7 mislaid aggregate NFL-caliber players. Even connected offense, location are cardinal pieces to replace, peculiarly up beforehand and astatine wide receiver.

So seeing Mizzou onshore comfortably wrong nan apical 25 feels eager astatine first glance, but let’s return a deeper dive into why.

SP+ has ne'er been astir perception. It is not a poll. It is not a projection based purely connected returning starters aliases header names. It is an efficiency-based metric built connected a operation of returning production, caller performance, recruiting and transportation history. It tries to measurement really bully a squad is connected a per-play ground alternatively than really explosive it mightiness be.

That is wherever this first standing starts to make a batch much sense.

Under Eli Drinkwitz, nan Tigers person softly go 1 of nan much efficiency-focused teams successful nan country. He’s built his offense, either by penchant aliases need, not geared toward nan changeless request for chunk plays, but alternatively arsenic 1 that values staying up of nan chains and avoiding antagonistic plays and finishing drives (with section extremity attempts.) Defensively, it is astir limiting explosives, forcing agelong drives and capitalizing connected mistakes.

That style is not ever nan astir flashy, but it tends to people retired very good successful metrics for illustration SP+. Efficiency is nan full point.

So moreover arsenic Mizzou loses a monolithic magnitude of production, particularly connected defense, nan underlying building that SP+ values is still there. The strategy has worked. The coaching unit has shown it tin create players wrong that system. The roster, while little experienced, is not devoid of talent.

That operation tends to gain nan use of nan uncertainty successful BillC’s preseason models. There is besides immoderate caller history backing it up.

Those are not monolithic misses by BillC’s knobs, dials and buttons. If anything, they show that SP+ has a beautiful coagulated publication connected what Mizzou is arsenic a programme nether Drinkwitz: a squad that is reliably supra average, often flirting pinch nan apical 15, but not rather elite.

At nan aforesaid time, a shape has emerged. In some seasons, nan preseason ranking was a spot much optimistic than nan last result. Not dramatically so, but capable to notice. That shape matters erstwhile looking astatine this year’s No. 20 ranking because if location is simply a accordant critique of SP+ erstwhile it comes to Mizzou, it is that it tends to somewhat over-index connected efficiency.

The Tigers play a style that looks awesome successful nan numbers, but that does not ever construe to a higher ceiling connected nan field. When things break down, erstwhile nan separator for correction shrinks, erstwhile explosive plays are needed to triumph large games, that efficiency-first attack tin deed its limits.

Now furniture that onto a roster that is replacing arsenic overmuch accumulation arsenic this 1 is. Ten protect starters gone is not a mini thing. That is simply a afloat portion reset. Even pinch belief successful nan scheme, location is going to beryllium a learning curve. New starters person to communicate. Young players person to set to bigger roles. Transfers person to acclimate.

The aforesaid is true, to a lesser extent, connected offense. There are intriguing pieces coming in, particularly astatine wide receiver and on nan violative line, but location are besides existent questions astir really quickly it each comes together.

That is why No. 20 feels a small precocious astatine first glance. It assumes a comparatively soft modulation from 1 roster to nan next, arsenic good arsenic that nan ratio Mizzou has built complete nan past fewer years will transportation over, moreover pinch truthful galore caller faces. That is simply a important assumption, but it is not an unreasonable one.

If location is 1 point Drinkwitz and his unit person proven, it is that they tin build a functional, businesslike shot team. They person done it pinch different personnel. They person done it aft roster turnover. They person done it while navigating nan transportation portal era.

While location are doubts astir really seamless this modulation will be, location is besides logic for optimism.

Defensively, nan strategy is still there. Even pinch nan losses, nan Tigers person recruited good and added pieces done nan portal that fresh what they want to do. It whitethorn not beryllium arsenic ascendant early successful nan season, but it would beryllium astonishing if it falls disconnected a cliff.

Offensively, location is logic to judge nan portion could amended successful definite areas. If nan violative statement stabilizes and nan caller wide receivers supply much accordant separation, nan passing crippled could return a measurement guardant from wherever it was successful 2025.

Put that together, and nan outline of a squad that lands location successful nan apical 25 becomes much justifiable. Not elite, not rebuilding, conscionable solidly successful nan mix. That is precisely wherever nan Tigers person been nan past 3 years and it is correct wherever SP+ has them.

So yes, No. 20 was higher than expected astatine first glance. The roster turnover unsocial suggested nan Tigers mightiness onshore a spot lower, astatine slightest successful nan preseason. The past 2 years propose that SP+ has been mostly correct astir Mizzou, moreover if it has leaned a small optimistically. But hey, who americium I to judge astir being excessively optimistic?