Missouri’s 2026 Returning Production: Offense

The champion measurement to task 2026 occurrence is by looking astatine nan remains of nan 2025 squad and figuring retired really overmuch accumulation returns connected nan violative and protect sides.

The man who created some Rock M Nation and nan SP+ metric system, Bill Connelly, has a measurement called “returning production”, a metric that attempts to quantify nan worth of production coming back, alternatively than nan worth of individuals coming back. His pieces are paywalled, but to me, it’s worthy checking retired each twelvemonth arsenic precocious returning accumulation (roughly 80%) tends to lead to a 5-6 constituent jump successful SP+. In truth - astatine this clip 3 years agone - I pointed retired that a 5-6 constituent jump successful SP+ for Missouri would mean an summation from a 9.4 successful ‘22 to a 14.4 aliases 15.4 successful ‘23; astatine nan extremity of nan ‘23 play that featured a Missouri squad returning 78% of nan anterior years’ production, said Mizzou squad vanished pinch a 19.3 standing successful SP+, astir a afloat 10 constituent jump!

The 2026 play has astir zero COVID prize twelvemonth guys hanging astir but, of course, pinch aggregate ongoing cases litigating eligibility - arsenic good arsenic nan impending-but-not-finalized “5 to play 5” norm - it’s intolerable to show if we’ll ever extremity nan changes capable to clasp a “new normal”. To beryllium sure, location are still lingering ace seniors and, of course, nan ever-active transportation portal will proceed to make roster guidance overmuch much different than what we were utilized to moreover 5 years ago. While that could mean that Bill C’s returning accumulation number mightiness not beryllium 100% accurate, it’s surely arsenic adjacent arsenic you tin get successful a fixed timeframe and he’s done better, much thorough activity than anyone other retired there. Here’s really his look projects Missouri:

Again, arsenic a reference point, astatine this clip past twelvemonth nan 2025 Missouri Tigers’ returning accumulation was 60% wide (51st), 44% discourtesy (100th), and 58% defense (68th). So, yeah, for nan 2nd clip successful 2 years Eli Drinkwitz’s Missouri Tigers are not going to beryllium anyplace adjacent to nan apical of returning accumulation successful nan country.

The existent nationalist mean for returning accumulation is nan lowest it’s ever been, acknowledgment to nan aforementioned COVID prize twelvemonth guys wholly washing retired and transfers expanding by 64% complete nan past 2 years. As acold arsenic nan SEC goes, Missouri’s 49% returning accumulation ranks 76th successful nan state and 12th successful nan SEC, pinch Mississippi State, Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt arsenic nan only teams returning little accumulation than nan bully feline Tigers.

The spot of nan 2023 Missouri squad was that it brought backmost a ton of accumulation to an SEC that was losing a batch of production, specifically astatine quarterback. In 2024, Missouri once again classed adjacent nan apical of nan convention successful accumulation (and erstwhile again boasted a proven quarterback) to a convention that once again was losing a bunch of accumulation and quarterbacks.

But that wasn’t nan lawsuit successful 2025 and surely isn’t for 2026.

Again, returning accumulation talks astir betterment aliases regression successful quality, not an summation aliases alteration successful wins, but nan good-news-take-away present is that nan squad astatine nan apical of RP successful nan SEC - South Carolina - only returns 68% of past year’s roster. That would beryllium good-to-middling successful erstwhile years, and would task astatine only a 0.5 triumph summation overall. Essentially, Missouri’s RP is bad but everyone’s RP is reasonably low, truthful hopefully that mitigates immoderate imaginable nonaccomplishment harvesting this fall.

Here’s Missouri’s 2025 end-of-season two-deep based disconnected of accumulation and threat counts. The gaps are players that were connected nan 2025 roster that won’t beryllium connected nan 2026 roster:

Pretty quiet connected nan 1st squad side, huh?

Today let’s break down Missouri’s returning violative production! On offense, returning accumulation looks astatine nan pursuing metrics and is fixed nan pursuing weights:

Bill C has said it countless times and I’ve echoed it: acquisition successful nan passing crippled (i.e. quarterbacks and receivers) matters nan most. But, fixed Bill’s updated weight allocation, nan only point that isn’t a bully predictor of early occurrence is moving backmost rushing yards. Let’s break down what’s coming backmost and from whom (italicized/struck-through players are not connected nan 2026 roster).

Beau Pribula is gone, taking pinch him astir of Missouri’s acquisition astatine nan position. Matt Zollers is still around, though, and is joined by caller friends Austin Simmons and Nick Evers. As you’ll remember, Simmons has already been named QB1 for nan 2026 team, leaving Evers to beryllium nan existent “break solid successful lawsuit of emergency” quarterback, and Zollers arsenic nan “it’s rustle retired time” quarterback. The main takeaway: not a batch of returning acquisition here. Bummer.

Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts return. That’s fundamentally each you request to cognize for 2026. As a affirmative addendum, Coach Luper already has their replacements connected nan roster and fresh to jump in: Xai’Shaun Edwards from Houston Christian and Malae Fonoti from Montana. At this constituent Loop’s guys person earned my 100% spot truthful expect 1 of those 2 to beryllium Missouri’s adjacent awesome 1,000+ gait rusher.

Just not successful 2026 (hopefully).

In lawsuit you forgot, Donovan Olugbode rules and will beryllium playing for Missouri again adjacent year. The Tigers mislaid 3 of their apical 4 targets but bring successful 2 guys pinch much targets, catches, and yards past those different guys, arsenic good arsenic a fewer building blocks for nan pursuing year. The portal additions are measurement catchers that will beryllium entering an discourtesy that traditionally doesn’t supply a batch of targets. I’m funny really this group gets utilized fixed it’s wide newness and nan tremendous moving backs that are aged veterans astatine this point. The types of additions and nan eligibility of these dudes makes this consciousness for illustration a semipermanent receiving corps alternatively than an effect one. But, hey, I could beryllium measurement disconnected connected that read.

Three returning starters, positive 3 portalled successful starters, helps mitigate nan acquisition mislaid from past year’s line. The value is unknown, and if outpouring shot is immoderate indicator, moreover nan returning guys could person caller spots that they’ll beryllium playing successful travel nan fall. Regardless, nan second-heaviest stat successful violative returning accumulation has a bully magnitude of returning production. Take nan wins erstwhile you can! Hopefully Josh Atkins doesn’t miss excessively overmuch time. Or possibly Logan Reichart/Tristan Wilson/Jack Lange are fresh to make nan leap.

Missouri returns almost everything from nan moving backs, very small from nan quarterback, has immoderate absorbing additions astatine receiver, and has tons of various caliber of starter/intriguing backups on nan line. That doesn’t mean that this discourtesy can’t beryllium bully to elite successful 2026, it conscionable intends that there’s capable questions that nan astir apt result is regression.

Next week we’ll cheque retired nan defense. If you thought nan numbers present were bad, clasp connected to your butts.