MBB Preview: Mizzou looks for 2-0 start to SEC play facing Kentucky

When | 6:00 p.m. CT

Where | Rupp Arena; Lexington, Ky.

TV | ESPN2

Radio | Tiger Radio Network

Kenpom prediction | Kentucky -9

ESPN triumph probability | 20.2% chance

G: Anthony Robinson II (JR, 11.5 PPG)

G: Jayden Stone (GR, 12.7 PPG)

F: Jacob Crews (GR, 13.9 PPG)

F: Mark Mitchell (SR, 16.9 PPG)

C: Shawn Phillips, Jr. (SR, 7.7 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Trent Pierce (JR, 6.7 PPG successful 24-25)

G: Otega Oweh (SR, 14.7 PPG)

G: Denzel Aberdeen (SR, 11.3 PPG)

G: Collin Chandler (SO, 8.8 PPG)

F: Mouhamed Dioubate (JR, 11.6 PPG)

C: Malachi Moreno (FR, 8.7 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Jaland Lowe (SR, 9.0 PPG)

Note: these starting lineups are projected.

Big Blue Nation entered nan 2025-26 play pinch precocious hopes. The Wildcats were classed ninth successful nan preseason AP top-25 canvass aft bringing successful a top-five people successful nan transportation portal and a top-10 recruiting class. Kentucky returned conscionable 1 starter from past season’s Sweet Sixteen team, Otega Oweh, but he was voted nan SEC Preseason Player of nan Year by nan conference’s coaches.

To brace pinch Oweh, UK brought successful All-ACC defender Jaland Lowe from Pitt aft he averaged much than 16 points, 5 assists and 4 rebounds per crippled past play pinch nan Panthers. The Wildcats’ 2nd scatter signing came successful nan shape of halfway Jayden Quaintance, who was named to nan All-Big 12 Freshman Team astatine Arizona State aft being 1 of nan astir sought-after players successful his class. Joining him retired of nan portal were Mouhamed Dioubate and Denzel Aberdeen, some coagulated domiciled players connected top-notch SEC squads past twelvemonth successful Alabama and Florida, respectively.

Kentucky besides added mid-major up-transfers successful defender Kam Williams from Tulane and guardant Reece Potter from Miami (Ohio). Combined pinch a freshman people featuring five-stars Jasper Johnson and Malachi Moreno, positive nan summation of Andrija Jelavic from Mega Superbet successful nan Adriatic League, nan Wildcats had assembled an awesome magnitude of talent to effort and switch nan important accumulation mislaid from past year’s team.

Mark Pope’s 2nd play astatine his alma mater hasn’t been a full-on disaster, but it hasn’t lived up to program’s (or nan fanbase’s) exacting standards, either. UK enters Wednesday night’s matchup having fallen down nan receiving votes class of nan top-25 canvass aft spending nan first 5 weeks of nan play ranked. Kentucky faced a reliable non-conference slate and near it pinch a fewer coagulated wins complete St. John’s and Indiana, but grounded to notch a signature victory.

The Wildcats dropped matchups to Michigan State, North Carolina, Gonzaga and rival Louisville during nan non-conference schedule earlier opening up SEC play pinch an 89-74 nonaccomplishment astatine Alabama. Kentucky has not been nan juggernaut galore predicted it would be, but UK is still a value squad looking to stack up wins aft losing its convention opener. Paired pinch nan Rupp Arena crowd, taking down nan Wildcats will beryllium a gangly (but not impossible) task for Mizzou.

Rebounding hasn’t been MU’s beardown suit this season, but nan Tigers held their ain against a Florida squad known for its forwards connected nan measurement to an upset win. Kentucky has been out-rebounded successful each but 1 of its losses this season, a 96-88 nonaccomplishment astatine Louisville, and nan Wildcats took nan rebounding separator by conscionable 2 boards successful that contest.

Controlling nan boards has been 1 of nan astir reliable ways to hit UK this year, and Mizzou will clasp nan tallness advantage successful Lexington. It will beryllium important for nan Tigers to make nan astir of it — triumph nan rebounding battle, and they mightiness return nan game, too.

Another accordant beingness successful Kentucky’s losses this season: struggles shooting from beyond nan arc. The Wildcats rank 125th successful Division I pinch 25.5 three-point changeable attempts per crippled and deed 33.1 percent of those shots, which ranks extracurricular nan top-200. That number drops sharply successful nan team’s losses, erstwhile it’s changeable conscionable 23.8 percent from beyond nan arc crossed 5 defeats.

UK has still (mostly) recovered occurrence connected offense, scoring much than 84 points a game, acknowledgment to beardown shooting from wrong nan arc. Kentucky has deed astir 60 percent of its section goals connected two-point attempts, making defense successful nan overgarment a apt plaything constituent successful nan result Wednesday. Luckily for nan Tigers, a attraction connected limiting violative accumulation astatine nan rim has been a staple of their protect strategy this play — though it’s travel pinch a tradeoff, arsenic our ain Matthew Harris explained aft MU’s nonaccomplishment to Illinois.

Trying to unit nan Illini to make a surviving from beyond nan arc buried Mizzou successful a blowout loss. But improved execution, nan returns of Jayden Stone and Trent Pierce, and amended luck pinch shooting variance could make nan strategy acold much effective against Kentucky.

UK’s extent has been 1 of its biggest assets this season. The Wildcats person 11 players who mean astatine slightest 15 minutes of playing time, though Mark Pope concentrated his team’s minutes much successful nan SEC opener against nan Crimson Tide. Kentucky still sewage 32 points from its chair successful that game, conscionable beneath its mean of 33.7 chair points that ranks successful nan top-35 nationally.

The Tigers were vaunted for their extent earlier successful nan play earlier nan wounded to Stone and Jacob Crews’ move into nan starting five. But Mizzou is arguably nan deepest it’s been each twelvemonth pinch nan return of Stone and Pierce, and that renewed extent could besides thief nan 2nd portion regain immoderate of its early-season effectiveness. MU doesn’t request to outscore nan Wildcats’ reserves; it simply needs to support nan separator successful chair points adjacent capable to not descend its chances of an upset.

I deliberation this matchup lines up reasonably good for Mizzou. The Wildcats person shown a constricted expertise to deed MU wherever it’s astir susceptible connected defense, and nan Tigers are coming disconnected a triumph while UK is looking to retrieve from a double-digit loss. Long communicative short: this crippled has nan imaginable for an upset.

But there’s a logic Kentucky is still nan clear favorite. The Wildcats arguably person nan separator successful talent and extent complete Mizzou, not to mention nan area wherever they clasp nan astir important precocious hand: home-court advantage. MU has struggled connected nan roadworthy and connected neutral courts this season, and a Rupp Arena crowd will apt manus Dennis Gates’ squad its astir adverse situation of nan year. Having Stone and Pierce backmost should make a awesome quality for this team, arsenic we saw successful its triumph complete Florida, but I don’t deliberation nan quality will beryllium ample capable to assistance nan Tigers complete UK.