2 months ago
Rodney Bushmeyer has been farming arsenic agelong arsenic he tin remember. Bushmeyer’s begetter was a farmer, arsenic was his grandfather.
The family-run Bushmeyer Farms successful Illinois dates backmost much than 100 years, erstwhile his ancestors came to nan US from Germany. They acquired nan first 80 acres cost-free arsenic homesteaders, cleared nan land, and worked it.
Now Bushmeyer, 69, gets to spot nan sunrise connected his measurement to activity each day. Wheat is planted and will beryllium followed by soy and maize successful nan adjacent respective weeks. In a month, nan workplace will “be greening up”, revealing a powerful palette.
“It’s a awesome life,” he said.
But Bushmeyer’s farm, which he runs pinch his boy and cousin, has felt nan effect of “dramatically” accrued fertilizer prices complete nan past 5 aliases six years. And while immoderate fertilizers person doubled successful cost, commodity prices for atom person dwindled.
“There is really nary profit correct now,” Bushmeyer said, later adding: “It’s not sustainable successful nan agelong term. We tin do that for a fewer years, but yet it’ll put america retired of business.”
While Bushmeyer’s conflict pinch fertilizer costs started respective years ago, galore US farmers are seeing themselves squeezed moreover much arsenic prices for cultivation nutrients person jumped successful caller weeks.
American farmers person go casualties successful nan US-Israel warfare against Iran. Iran closed nan strait of Hormuz, cutting disconnected a cardinal fertilizer accumulation and proscription route, and efforts to reopen this important waste and acquisition way person stalled.
The closure has intensified unit connected farmers arsenic it comes arsenic during nan US outpouring planting season. The value spike besides comes arsenic farmers are experiencing respective years of losing money connected increasing crops.
“It’s not a awesome clip for nan grower,” said Matt Bennett, CEO of AgMarket, a brokerage and husbandman consulting firm. Bennett is besides a seventh-generation atom husbandman based successful Shelby County, Illnois.
The Middle East is captious to world fertilizer trade, pinch 35% of world urea trade, a coagulated nitrogen fertilizer, coming done nan region. Roughly 20% of nan phosphate waste and acquisition comes from Saudi Arabia, says Chris Yearsley, CEO and caput of nitrogen astatine Profercy, a world fertilizer pricing, study and forecasting firm.
The US imports astir 25% of its full fertilizer use, including 18% of its nitrogen use, says nan American Farm Bureau.
Fertilizer prices person been elevated since nan onset of nan Russia-Ukraine war, and nitrogen values were already rising successful precocious 2025, but prices person astir doubled since nan shipping transmission closed.
Benchmark New Orleans nitrogen prices were astatine $350 a short ton successful precocious December, and successful precocious February, conscionable earlier nan conflict, had risen to $470, Yearsley says. As of 10 March, nitrogen prices were trading astir $600, he says.
Fertilizer is nan astir volatile and important non-land costs for astir farmers. For corn, nan US’s biggest accumulation crop, it tin relationship for 20% of full accumulation expenses, according to nan US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Farmers person struggled pinch their costs being higher than nan prices they are paid for harvest for astatine slightest 3 years, and nan USDA had forecast 2026 would beryllium different twelvemonth of lowered profits, moreover earlier nan spike successful fertilizer prices.
“With harvest economics arsenic bad arsenic they are correct now, it doesn’t return overmuch to destruct (a farmer’s) income statement,” said Philip Coffin, independent atom manufacture analyst.
In 2025, if it wasn’t for national subsidies, including nan $12bn successful span loans nan USDA is offering to farmers wounded by Donald Trump’s tariffs, producers would person mislaid money.
Gregg Ibendahl, subordinate professor astatine Kansas State University, says nan other payments were a lifeline to farmers. “They turned a really bad twelvemonth into astatine slightest a mediocre year,” he said.
Lance Lillibridge, who farms astir 1,250 acres of maize successful east-central Iowa, grew up connected a workplace and knows afloat good what economical unit tin do to farmers.
During precocious school, Lillbridge saw nan 1980s workplace situation unfold. An agriculture coach moreover told him “you mightiness arsenic good find thing other to do, Mr Lillibridge, because you’ll ne'er make it successful farming,” he recalled.
So Lillibridge – who had dreamed of owning a workplace – worked successful a mill for 5 years retired of precocious school. “I hated each infinitesimal of it,” he said. Lillibridge returned to workplace activity successful nan 1990s and started a trucking company, which helped him get backmost into farming.
He managed to bargain onshore correct earlier nan ethanol-fueled cultivation roar and modulation into farming full-time. But pinch that boom, Lillibridge said, came consolidation successful cultivation sectors specified arsenic meatpacking, fertilizer and seed production.
“The fertilizer manufacture is astir apt nan astir concentrated manufacture successful nan full world, and they are capable to manipulate markets. They person marketplace power, and there’s not a damn point that we tin do astir it correct now, different than dream and believe that our Department of Justice comes down connected them,” he said.
Lillibridge said he has already purchased fertilizer he will request coming up, but says that continued value levels will beryllium unsustainable successful nan future.
“We won’t beryllium capable to bargain nan fertilizer,” he said. Lenders won’t want to thief farmers pinch credit. “Banks are already cutting guys and saying, ‘Yeah, sorry, we can’t finance that. There’s not a return connected investment. We can’t do it.’”
The consequences could beryllium disastrous. A distressed husbandman could waste their property, but nan personification who buys their workplace would besides find themselves facing precocious fertilizer prices. Or, a husbandman mightiness eschew fertilizer.
“That will trim harvest yields and that, successful turn, is going to make everything overmuch much expensive,” he said. “For you, me, everybody else, your costs astatine nan market shop is going to spell up.”
Without meaningful action to reside fertilizer prices, nan early could beryllium bleak.
“My workplace is astir apt going to beryllium OK for different mates [of] years, but thing has to change, aliases I’m going to beryllium astatine nan constituent wherever I don’t want to do it.”
“I’ve sewage a 19-year-old son. This is what he wants to do,” Lillibridge said of farming. “And I conscionable don’t cognize if it’s going to beryllium a bully point for him to do.”
The precocious fertilizer prices could impact what immoderate farmers works this spring. The USDA is presently surveying farmers astir their planting intentions, pinch nan consequence slated to beryllium released connected 31 March. The study results are nan first important study for nan coming increasing season, arsenic nan information often causes prices successful nan futures markets to plaything if nan information surprises.
In February, nan USDA’s preliminary grain-acreage estimate has already forecast a 4 million-acre plaything to soybeans from corn. This is not unusual, arsenic galore atom farmers rotate annually betwixt maize and soybeans for agronomic reasons, but soybeans now whitethorn bargain much acres from maize successful 2026 because nan oilseed requires little fertilizer, making them cheaper to grow.
Some farmers are pinning their hopes connected a caller authorities biofuels argumentation that could create much request for soybeans, successful portion to offset immoderate of nan mislaid export business.
Bennett says he is sticking pinch his accepted maize and soybean rotation and nan section prep that requires; however, he has spoken to different farmers who waited to put down fertilizer successful nan fall, hoping for little prices.
“That’s wherever nan growers are benignant of hamstrung correct now,” he said.
Farmers who applied autumn fertilizer haven’t needfully gotten disconnected lucky. Farmers who scheme to turn maize usually are nan ones who use fertilizer aft nan autumn harvest; they’re locked into that determination because of sunken costs. They besides request to adhd much nutrients successful nan spring, truthful they’re affected by nan aforesaid precocious fertilizer prices arsenic farmers who were finalizing their plans.
Coffin says nan value spike happened truthful accelerated that farmers were improbable to person booked their needs earlier prices rose. Now they person to make decisions astir what to works and really overmuch to usage passim nan increasing season. Fewer nutrients tin trim yields and really overmuch money producers earn.
Even if farmers paid for fertilizer earlier, there’s a chance nan nutrients whitethorn beryllium stuck successful limbo. Fertilizer deliveries from nan Middle East tin return up to 2 months to get to farmers successful nan bluish US, Coffin says.
He believes there’s a “fair amount” of fertilizer successful nan US already, but what’s chartless is really overmuch is floating successful nan Red Sea awaiting shipment to nan US for outpouring planting needs.
“That’s nan really captious portion here,” Coffin said. “How overmuch of nan fertilizer that’s bought and ordered for shipment – really overmuch of that will get hung up successful this conflict here?”
Angela Guentzel, a sixth-generation husbandman whose family’s onshore sits astatine nan northbound extremity of nan maize belt. During nan outpouring and summer, fields are lush pinch rain.
Guentzel, 37, purchased fertilizer this fall, earlier nan caller value spike. Modern farming exertion has besides helped nan workplace beryllium much precise and businesslike pinch fertilizer application.
If fertilizer prices stay precocious successful nan fall, that will only heighten nan economical strain connected farmers. “Cuts are going to person to beryllium made, conscionable betwixt nan depressed value of what we tin waste our harvest for, and accrued prices for everything that will person for inputs,” said Guentzel, a committee personnel of nan Minnesota Corn Growers Association.
“It’s a double-edged sword,” she said. “Putting inappropriate amounts of fertilizer is benignant of fundamentally conscionable not an option, because if you person little fertilizer, past you’re going to person little yield.”
Guentzel said nan situation facing farmers poses problems that widen acold beyond those who activity nan land.
“Food information is fundamentally nationalist security,” she said. “Everything connected nan array starts pinch a husbandman and seed successful nan ground. And fertilizer isn’t really an optional thing.”
“If we can’t spend to put a harvest successful nan ground, we past go much limited connected overseas nations to provender our ain people.”
It’s unclear whether location is immoderate alleviation successful show for farmers grappling pinch precocious fertilizer prices. If fertilizer prices proceed to increase, location could moreover beryllium governmental implications.
“Farmers are nan backbone of America, and erstwhile they’re squeezed by rising costs for illustration fertilizer, it carries existent governmental weight,” said Brittany Martinez, a Republican strategist and nan executive head of Principles First. “Many of these voters person historically supported Republicans, but if they consciousness nan Trump management isn’t delivering connected economical promises, that vexation could negatively effect Republicans connected predetermination day.”
“To gain their support, some parties request to attraction connected applicable alleviation – lowering input costs, stabilizing proviso chains, and really showing up for agrarian communities pinch solutions, not rhetoric,” Martinez said.
For now, farmers are doing their champion to contend pinch blistering economical headwinds brought by fertilizer prices and sadistic commodities markets.
“It’s retired of our control,” Bushmeyer said.
Still, Bushmeyer is remaining hopeful.
“My dada utilized to say, we’re astatine nan mercy of nan upwind and nan government, and we can’t power either,” he said. “When you turn up successful this business, you conscionable just return immoderate comes and you raise nan champion harvest you tin and remainder is up to God and mother nature.”
“We person to beryllium optimistic aliases we would ne'er raise a crop, ne'er try.”
