ISIS poised to exploit historic US Iraq exit, terror group 'actively waiting in the gaps,' expert warns

The Islamic State is softly rebuilding arsenic nan United States prepares to complete its withdrawal from Iraq, raising fears the panic group could utilization a information vacuum, a location information master warned Sunday.

With U.S. forces leaving by Sept. 30 and arsenic Baghdad tries to rein successful Iran-backed militias, Iraq could besides be entering its astir vulnerable play since ISIS seized Mosul successful 2014, according to counterterrorism master Dr. Omar Mohammed.

"ISIS is waiting actively successful nan gaps, arsenic it historically ever has," Mohammed, writer and interrogator pinch nan George Washington University Program connected Extremism, told Fox News Digital.

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The Islamic State is softly rebuilding arsenic nan United States prepares to complete its withdrawal from Iraq, location analysts say. (History/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

"The mobility is not whether American forces time off Iraq successful September; that timetable is set. The mobility is what leaves pinch them."

"The militias declare nan ISIS threat successful bid to support their weapons, while ISIS recruits from nan grievances that nan militias create," Mohammed explained.

"That is precisely nan move that hollowed retired Mosul earlier 2014, erstwhile nan metropolis was caught betwixt a sectarian information servants of nan state and nan insurgency it fed."

After preparing for years, ISIS captured Mosul, astir 250 miles northbound of Baghdad, complete a decade ago. Iraqi information forces collapsed and fled nan city.

The group built underground networks done assassinations, extortion, intimidation and infiltration earlier launching its offensive. ISIS seized U.S.-made weapons and hundreds of millions of dollars earlier leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared nan group's self-proclaimed caliphate.

At nan time, Mohammed launched "Mosul Eye," a blog that secretly documented life nether ISIS rule, exposing its operations and offering intelligence to U.S. forces.

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U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has said it will proceed moving to dismantle ISIS networks and forestall nan panic group's resurgence. (AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP via Getty Images)

Mohammed’s communicative is chronicled successful Mosul Eye: A Scholar's Clandestine War Against ISIS, retired July 21 from Skyhorse Publishing, pinch a foreword by Pope Francis and an preamble by retired Gen. David Petraeus.

Iraqi forces, backed by nan U.S.-led coalition, went connected to recapture Mosul successful July 2017. When nan U.S. combat ngo ended successful 2021, ISIS continued operating successful parts of Iraq and Syria.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has said it will proceed moving to dismantle ISIS networks and forestall nan panic group's resurgence.

But, citing Iraqi intelligence estimates, Mohammed said nan number of ISIS fighters successful neighboring Syria has accrued from astir 2,000 to arsenic galore arsenic 10,000 since nan illness of Bashar Assad's authorities successful 2024.

Mohammed besides said nan Popular Mobilization Forces, aliases PMF, an umbrella statement integrated into Iraq's information forces, was ne'er disbanded aft ISIS's territorial defeat.

He estimated nan unit has astir 238,000 members, receives billions of dollars successful authorities backing and includes factions pinch adjacent ties to Iran that run extracurricular nan Iraqi government's nonstop control.

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With U.S. forces leaving by Sept. 30 and arsenic Baghdad tries to rein successful Iran-backed militias, Iraq could besides beryllium entering its astir vulnerable play since ISIS seized Mosul successful 2014. (REUTERS/Mohammed Ameen)

Now Baghdad is trying to bring equipped factions, including Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, nether afloat authorities control.

"Sept. 30 is not 1 deadline; it is two," Mohammed said, referring to nan simultaneous U.S. withdrawal and nan home disarmament push.

"The militias and ISIS are not abstracted stories; they are profoundly interdependent. Each actively justifies nan other. Both forces thrive successful nan unstable spaces nan cardinal authorities cannot hold."

The U.S. withdrawal besides follows a 2024 U.S.-Iraq statement that envisioned ending nan ngo successful Iraq by 2025 while continuing support for anti-ISIS operations successful Syria done September 2026. Mohammed warned against repeating past complacency.

"Mosul did not autumn successful 2014 because ISIS was strong. It fell because everything that would person detected its strength—presence, attention, honorable reporting from nan ground—had been withdrawn successful nan years before, while nan world's eyes were elsewhere."

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U.S. President Donald Trump gestures toward Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi arsenic they participate successful a bilateral gathering successful nan Oval Office astatine nan White House successful Washington, D.C., U.S., July 14, 2026. (Evan Vucci/Reuters)

Meanwhile, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s White House gathering July 14, wherever it was announced remaining U.S. troops would time off Iraq, drew condemnation from Tehran.

According to Iran International, Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei , called al-Zaidi's travel "regrettable" and claimed it damaged Iraq's dignity.

Mohammed said Iran's power wrong Iraq is important to Tehran aft U.S. strikes degraded parts of its proxy network.

"Iran's strategical calculation matters much now than astatine immoderate constituent successful a decade because Iraq is fundamentally what Iran has left," Mohammed said. "So nan regime's existent fearfulness is not resurgence. It is irrelevance."

Tehran fears an Iraq wherever nan authorities successfully disarms nan militias, U.S. forces time off connected Baghdad's position alternatively than Iran's, and nary progressive information situation remains to warrant equipped groups operating extracurricular afloat authorities control, he said.

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"That said, what happens crossed nan wider region aft September will not beryllium decided by anyone's stated intentions aliases negotiated promises," Mohammed added.

"I person seen what a metropolis pays erstwhile that judgement is wrong. Whether ISIS grows ample capable to frighten Iran, aliases stays conscionable ample capable to service it, will beryllium 1 of nan defining questions of nan twelvemonth aft nan withdrawal," he warned.

Fox News Digital has reached retired to nan White House for comment.