Iran's ceasefire push may be a 'cycle of deception,' analysts warn as shadowy figure gains power

President Donald Trump suggested Wednesday that Iran whitethorn beryllium seeking a ceasefire, but analysts opportunity existent powerfulness lies pinch hardline figures wrong nan Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including recently salient commandant Ahmad Vahidi.

Trump did not sanction nan Iranian fig he was referring to, but his remark apt pointed to President Masoud Pezeshkian, writing: "Iran’s New Regime President, overmuch little Radicalized and acold much intelligent than his predecessors, has conscionable asked nan United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will see erstwhile Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, arsenic they say, backmost to nan Stone Ages!!!"

Experts caution, however, that Iran’s president does not power decisions of war and peace.  

"He intelligibly does not person nan authority to move connected aliases move disconnected a awesome subject conflict pinch nan United States," Behnam Ben Taleblu, a elder chap astatine nan Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.

TRUMP’S IRAN STRATEGY SHOWCASES ‘DOCTRINE OF UNPREDICTABILITY’ AMID STRIKE THREATS AND SUDDEN PAUSE

Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi speaks during a property convention aft nan parliamentary elections successful Tehran, Iran, March 4, 2024.  (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)

Instead, analysts opportunity existent powerfulness lies pinch elder figures tied to nan Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Vahidi, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and information charismatic Mohammad Zolghadr, each of whom run wrong overlapping centers of influence.

Attention is turning to nan caller panic main seen arsenic an extremist pulling strings, Vahidi — a longtime Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commandant whose reemergence highlights a broader displacement underway wrong Iran’s leadership.

Beni Sabti, an Iran master astatine nan Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, warned that moreover erstwhile Iran signals liking successful a "ceasefire," it whitethorn not bespeak a Western knowing of nan term. 

He pointed to nan conception of "hudna," describing it arsenic "a ceasefire pinch deception — they extremity erstwhile they are weak, rebuild their strength, and past onslaught again, whether against Israel aliases nan United States." 

Sabti added that specified pauses tin go "a rhythm of unit that does not end," driven by ideological motivations, and should not beryllium interpreted arsenic a genuine extremity to hostilities.

Ahmad Vahidi, commandant of nan Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, and Iraj Masjedi, Deputy Coordinator of nan Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, participate successful a ceremonial to people nan representation of erstwhile IRGC commander, Hossein Salami, who is killed successful Israeli attacks, astatine a mosque successful an IRGC organizational location analyzable successful Tehran, Iran, connected July 25, 2025.  (Morteza Nikoubazl/Nur Photo via Getty Images)

From covert operations to world attacks

At nan halfway of that uncertainty is Ahmad Vahidi, nan caller Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander. 

"He is simply a very convulsive man and belongs to a procreation that fought successful guerrilla warfare," Sabti told Fox News Digital.

Sabti described Vahidi arsenic portion of an early cadre of Iranian operatives who built ties pinch militant groups successful Lebanon earlier and aft nan 1979 revolution, relationships that later became cardinal to Iran’s location strategy. Some accounts propose Vahidi trained successful camps linked to Palestinian and Lebanese factions successful confederate Lebanon, helping laic nan groundwork for Iran’s long-standing confederation pinch Lebanon-based panic group Hezbollah. 

DESTROY THE REGIME’S POWER WITHOUT OCCUPYING IRAN: A SMARTER WAR PLAN

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf looks connected arsenic parliament members chant successful support of nan IRGC while wearing subject uniforms successful Tehran, Iran, Feb 1, 2026.  (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic consultative assembly news agency/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)

Vahidi roseate done nan ranks of nan Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and went connected to service arsenic commandant of its elite Quds Force successful nan 1990s, a portion responsible for overseas operations.

He has been linked to immoderate of nan deadliest attacks attributed to Iranian-backed networks abroad, including nan 1992 bombing of nan Israeli Embassy successful Argentina and nan 1994 bombing of nan AMIA Jewish organization halfway successful Buenos Aires.

Sabti said Vahidi was besides accused of maintaining connections pinch al Qaeda figures pursuing nan Sept. 11 attacks, reflecting what he described arsenic Iran’s willingness to cooperate pinch groups targeting Western and Israeli interests.

Despite later holding positions that appeared governmental aliases bureaucratic, Sabti said Vahidi ne'er genuinely stepped distant from nan Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s powerful subject and intelligence arm, meaning his domiciled remained intimately tied to nan regime’s information and operational apparatus.

"He ever remained portion of nan Revolutionary Guards — moreover wearing uniform," he said. "That’s communal successful Iran. Even erstwhile they move into politics, they enactment wrong nan force."

Sabti besides pointed to Vahidi’s alleged domiciled successful suppressing Kurdish uprisings successful northwestern Iran successful nan aftermath of nan 1979 Islamic Revolution, underscoring his longstanding engagement successful soul information operations. 

HEGSETH REVEALS COVERT VISIT TO TROOPS FIGHTING IN OPERATION EPIC FURY

A composite image shows respective Iranian leaders named successful nan State Department’s Rewards for Justice programme offering up to $10 cardinal for accusation connected cardinal figures tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Mojtaba Khamenei, apical left. (State Department / Rewards for Justice; Khoshiran / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)

A strategy driven by power, not position

Vahidi’s renewed prominence comes arsenic Iran’s soul building appears progressively fragmented, pinch authority concentrated successful overlapping and sometimes competing networks.

"It’s not clear really coordinated either nan subject aliases governmental actions of nan authorities of nan Islamic Republic is today," Ben Taleblu said.

He described Iran arsenic "a strategy of men, not a strategy of laws," wherever individual ties and informal power often outweigh general titles.

That move has intensified as nan warfare continues. 

"We are seeing nan IRGC ascendancy… crossed a big of Iranian governmental and information institutions," he said.

"This IRGC ascendancy will mean a much crass Islamic Republic, but it comes astatine a clip erstwhile this authorities is militarily little tin than ever before," he added.

More power, little restraint

Sabti said Vahidi whitethorn now beryllium much influential than different salient figures successful Tehran, including parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

"In my view, he is much ascendant correct now, moreover if they are coordinated. This is not a clip for soul competition," Sabti said.

He warned that Vahidi’s emergence could further harden Iran’s posture.

"He brings moreover much radicalization into nan strategy and whitethorn not want to extremity nan war, because it serves nan interests of nan Revolutionary Guards to continue," Sabti said.

"They could go masters of nan region if nan United States folds — and that is very overmuch successful his interest."

Trump’s proposal that Iran is seeking a ceasefire has raised hopes of a imaginable negotiated opening, but experts be aware that specified signals whitethorn not bespeak a unified position wrong Iran. 

"The mobility is what was shared pinch President Trump genuine, aliases is it wheeling and dealing of conscionable 1 eager person?" Ben Taleblu said.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian attends a property convention successful Tehran, Iran, Sep. 16, 2024.  (WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Majid Asgaripour via Reuters)

"Pezeshkian intelligibly does not person nan authority to move connected aliases move disconnected a awesome subject conflict pinch nan United States," Ben Taleblu said.

That leaves unfastened nan anticipation that immoderate outreach could beryllium tactical, fragmented, aliases moreover contradictory.

Fox News Digital reached retired to nan White House for remark but did not person a consequence successful clip for publication.