Iran regime power players may eye Russia in Assad-style escape as US talks falter: expert

The evident illness of high-stakes U.S.-Iran negotiations has intensified fears that elder figures wrong Tehran’s activity could fly to Russia, seeking refuge to "continue their insurgency and undermine immoderate caller regime," an expert warns.

The breakdown successful talks comes arsenic Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu besides told CBS’ "60 Minutes" that toppling Iran’s authorities could now moreover beryllium a realistic outcome.

Netanyahu noted that immoderate illness would dismantle nan "scaffolding" of Tehran's world panic proxy network, besides perchance ending Hezbollah's power successful nan region.

"The full scaffolding of nan violent proxy web that Iran built collapses if nan authorities successful Iran collapses," Netanyahu said.

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President Donald Trump said U.S. subject strikes connected Iran were truthful effective they eliminated overmuch of nan regime’s anticipated activity succession bench, raising questions astir who will lead nan Islamic Republic. (Mohsen Ganji/AP:Office of Supreme Leader of Iran)

"I deliberation you can’t foretell erstwhile that will happen. Is it possible? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No," he warned.

With negotiated options possibly exhausted and nan regime's stableness successful question, an master suggests nan exit strategy immoderate activity whitethorn beryllium eyeing mightiness beryllium akin to that of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled Syria successful 2024.

"If nan business deteriorates further, immoderate elder figures could perchance travel a way for illustration Bashar al-Assad’s soul circle and activity refuge successful Russia," Middle East master Saeid Golkar told Fox News Digital.

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While apical commanders would perchance beryllium Moscow-bound, lower-ranking figures would much apt caput for Iraq aliases Afghanistan, Middle East master Saeid Golkar told Fox News Digital. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic Consultative Assembly News Agency/WANA)

Golkar, a elder advisor astatine United Against Nuclear Iran, noted that formation destinations would apt dangle connected rank.

While apical commanders for illustration Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf mightiness caput to Moscow, lower-ranking figures would much apt activity shelter successful Iraq aliases Afghanistan, wherever nan IRGC maintains operational connections, he clarified.

"For nan astir elder figures, Russia would astir apt beryllium nan astir apt destination, again arsenic we saw pinch Bashar al-Assad," Golkar said, noting galore officials person already moved wealthiness into "financial networks extracurricular Iran."

The existent situation started pursuing nan decease of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier successful 2026 during nan onset of Operation Epic Fury.

While his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was named successor, reports proceed to bespeak he was severely injured successful nan strikes and has been absent from caller negotiations.

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Mojtaba Khamenei, nan caller ultimate leader of Iran and 2nd boy of nan precocious Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is "either dormant aliases successful bad condition," according to Golkar. (Hamed Jafarnejad/ISNA/WANA/Reuters)

Golkar explained that nan "invisible state," aliases Bayt-e Rahbari, was designed to past decapitation, while nan ideological costs of fleeing for leaders would beryllium high.

"Inside nan regime’s ideological culture, leaving nan state during nan illness would look for illustration desertion," Golkar noted.

However, arsenic subject fractures deepen and succession remains uncertain, nan "Assad model" of seeking Russian protection appears progressively charismatic to those astatine nan top.

Mojtaba, however, is "either dormant aliases successful bad condition, that he cannot nonstop immoderate video aliases sound message," Golkar added.

"If he had died from his injuries, location was nary clear earthy successor. He was nan continuation of nan regime."

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"Still, nan strategy was designed for continuity during a crisis," Golkar said, adding that nan extremity is to "make judge nan authorities could past moreover if general institutions were damaged, leaders were killed, aliases civilian authorities stopped functioning."

"I would picture it arsenic a authorities designed not conscionable to govern, but ever to effort and past decapitation," Golkar added.