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Iran’s subject is not designed to triumph a accepted warfare against nan United States aliases Israel. It is designed to past one, sorb harm and proceed fighting complete time, experts say.
That strategy is reflected some successful really nan unit is built and really it is performing now, aft weeks of sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes.
The standard of nan run has been significant. More than 9,000 targets person been struck since nan motorboat of Operation Epic Fury, according to a March 23, 2026, truth expanse from U.S. Central Command, alongside much than 9,000 combat flights, hitting rocket sites, aerial defenses, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps bid centers and weapons accumulation facilities.
NEXT MOVE ON IRAN: SEIZE KHARG ISLAND, SECURE URANIUM OR RISK GROUND WAR ESCALATION

Iran’s subject is not designed to triumph a accepted warfare against nan United States aliases Israel: It is designed to past one, experts say. (Iranian Army/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)
U.S. officials opportunity nan nonsubjective is clear.
"We are targeting and eliminating Iran’s ballistic rocket systems … destroying nan Iranian Navy … and ensuring Iran cannot quickly rebuild," Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine said during a March Pentagon briefing.
But analysts be aware that nan image is much complex.
"It’s a mixed bag," Nicholas Carl, a chap astatine nan blimpish American Enterprise Institute deliberation vessel and adjunct head of nan Critical Threats Project, told Fox News Digital. "On 1 hand, (Iran’s military) is severely degraded crossed nan board, but nan authorities still retains a important magnitude of capability."
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At nan bosom of Iran’s subject strategy is simply a deliberate dual structure: nan accepted army, known arsenic nan Artesh, and nan Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) Handout via Reuters)
A ‘double army’ built to protect nan regime
At nan bosom of Iran’s subject strategy is simply a deliberate dual structure: nan accepted army, known arsenic nan Artesh, and nan Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a parallel unit created aft nan 1979 gyration to safeguard nan regime.
According to Carl, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has shaped nan equipped forces passim decades astir 1 cardinal objective: preserving nan Islamic Republic and exporting its revolutionary ideology.
"You request to abstracted betwixt nan IRGC and nan regular army," Middle East intelligence master Danny Citrinowicz told Fox News Digital. "The IRGC gets each of nan budgets — amended salaries, amended equipment, amended everything."
Carl describes nan Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps arsenic a "deeply ideological praetorian guard," while nan Artesh remains a much accepted unit tasked pinch defending Iran’s borders.
But nan favoritism is not absolute.
"The IRGC is astir apt nan much vulnerable of nan two, but we cannot discount nan threat that nan regular subject poses arsenic well," Carl said.
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A large banner depicting Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is placed adjacent to a ballistic rocket successful Baharestan Square successful Tehran, Iran, successful 2024. (Photo by Hossein Beris / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP) (Photo by HOSSEIN BERIS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
Missiles stay Iran’s astir powerful weapon
Iran’s rocket programme remains nan backbone of its subject power, moreover aft extensive strikes.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force has spent years building what Carl describes arsenic nan largest rocket inventory successful nan Middle East.
U.S. officials opportunity those capabilities person been importantly reduced pinch caller strikes.
"Iran’s ballistic rocket shots fired are down 86% from nan first time of fighting," Caine said successful a Pentagon briefing earlier successful March, adding that drone launches person dropped by astir 73%.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said successful nan aforesaid briefing that nan run has sharply constricted Iran’s expertise to prolong attacks.
"The force tin nary longer sprout nan measurement of missiles they erstwhile did, not moreover close," he said.
But moreover U.S. officials admit nan threat persists.
"Iran will still beryllium capable to sprout immoderate missiles … and motorboat one-way onslaught drones," Hegseth said.
Carl said nan diminution successful occurrence has plateaued.
"Iranian rocket and drone occurrence has dropped precipitously … astir 90% since nan warfare began… but that number has been accordant for weeks," he said. "That intends they still clasp capable capacity to prolong strikes crossed nan region."
Citrinowicz offered a akin assessment.
"They suffered blows, but still clasp nan expertise and still person nan capacity to motorboat missiles for weeks to come," he said.
U.S. estimates cited by Carl propose astir a 3rd of Iran’s rocket capabilities stay active.
"The authorities still does person a important capacity to frighten targets crossed nan region … particularly arsenic it demonstrates nan expertise to sprout beyond 2,000 kilometers," Carl said.
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The Iranian Revolutionary Guard's navy commandant Alireza Tangsiri, who was killed by nan Israelis connected March 26, 2026, astatine an accumulation successful nan confederate larboard metropolis of Bandar Abbas, Iran, successful 2024. (Iranian Presidency Office via AP)
A navy built to disrupt world trade
The Pentagon says it has made awesome gains against Iran’s naval forces.
More than 140 Iranian vessels person been damaged aliases destroyed, according to U.S. Central Command.
Caine said U.S. forces person "effectively neutralized" Iran’s awesome naval beingness successful nan region.
But analysts pass that Iran’s naval threat was ne'er limited connected ample ships.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy is built astir "area denial capabilities," including accelerated onslaught craft, mines, missiles and drones designed to swarm adversaries and disrupt maritime movement.
"They still person nan capacity — speedboats, drones, surface-to-sea missiles — allowing them to block nan Strait of Hormuz," Citrinowicz said.
Carl cautioned against a communal misconception.
"It’s not technically meticulous to opportunity nan Strait of Hormuz is closed … Iran is selectively denying entree … firing astatine immoderate ships while allowing others to pass," he said.
"Iran has to do very, very small to execute a meaningful effect."
HEZBOLLAH, IRAN UNLEASH COORDINATED CLUSTER BOMB STRIKES ON ISRAEL IN MAJOR ESCALATION

A Fighter craft is seen astatine nan first underground aerial unit base, called "Eagle 44" astatine an undisclosed location successful Iran, successful this handout image obtained Feb. 7, 2023. (West Asia News Agency/Handout via REUTERS)
Air superiority, but not full control
U.S. officials opportunity nan run has achieved awesome advancement successful nan air.
"We will person complete power of Iranian skies, uncontested airspace," Hegseth said.
Caine added that U.S. forces person already established "localized air superiority" and are expanding operations deeper into Iranian territory.
But Iran’s aerial unit was ne'er nan centerpiece of its strategy. Years of sanctions person near it reliant connected aging craft and constricted modernization, making it acold little tin than its Western aliases location adversaries.
"There is decidedly a setback … but Iran was ne'er built connected an aerial force," Citrinowicz said.
Instead, Iran relies connected missiles, drones and layered defenses.
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On nan ground, Iran retains a cardinal advantage: its forces person mostly not been straight engaged. (Morteza Nikoubazl/Nur Photo via Getty Images)
Ground forces stay mostly intact
On nan ground, Iran retains a cardinal advantage: its forces person mostly not been straight engaged.
The Artesh crushed forces, which see tens of brigades, are positioned chiefly to take sides Iran’s borders, according to Carl’s report.
"The crushed troops are still intact, cipher has invaded Iran," Citrinowicz said.
He noted that crushed forces are progressively launching drones, signaling a broader displacement successful really Iran fights.
Proxy web extends Iran’s reach
Beyond its borders, Iran’s subject powerfulness is extended done a web of proxy forces managed by nan Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force.
Carl said nan Quds Force provides "leadership, materiel, intelligence, training and funds" to allied militias crossed nan Middle East, including Hezbollah, Hamas and nan Houthis.
"The ‘Axis of Resistance’ is nan cardinal system by which Iran tin further regionalize nan conflict … to endanger arsenic galore actors’ interests arsenic possible," Carl said.
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Iranian soldiers return portion successful a subject parade during a ceremonial marking nan country's yearly service time April 17, 2024, successful Tehran, Iran. (Getty Images)
Built to survive, not to win
Iran’s subject is besides system to face soul threats, reinforcing its halfway purpose: authorities survival.
The consequence is simply a unit built connected redundancy, asymmetry and endurance.
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Even aft weeks of sustained strikes, Iran retains capable capacity to proceed launching missiles, harassing world shipping and leveraging proxy forces crossed nan region.
It whitethorn beryllium weakened, but it remains strategically dangerous.
"We cannot discount nan threat that nan Iranian subject poses," Carl said, "it remains a unit tin of threatening location and world security."
Efrat Lachter is simply a overseas analogous for Fox News Digital covering world affairs and nan United Nations. Follow her connected X @efratlachter. Stories tin beryllium sent to [email protected].
2 months ago