1 hour ago
After watching 120 minutes of football, you mightiness not find watching a coin flip nan astir breathtaking dessert. Fans successful nan stadium care, though. Win a coin flip for a punishment shootout and you take nan extremity wherever they are taken – to overmuch rejoicing from those down nan chosen goal. Another coin flip besides allows nan victor to take whether to spell first aliases second. But does that determination really matter?
For years, nan statement was that going first successful a shootout gives teams an advantage. Being capable to return nan lead and put scoreboard unit connected opponents surely has a intelligence benefit, and intends they are much apt to look nan dreaded “must-score” penalty. However, erstwhile Rubén Vargas tucked distant nan winning spot footwear for Switzerland against Colombia successful their last-16 tie, it continued a alternatively funny trend.
All 4 punishment shootouts astatine this World Cup person been won by nan squad that went second. That is not overmuch of a sample, but 13 of nan past 15 shootouts astatine World Cups person been won by nan squad going 2nd (86.7%). The only shootouts successful that clip wherever nan teams going first won were successful nan 2022 World Cup, erstwhile Morocco eliminated Spain successful nan last-16 stage and Croatia hit Brazil successful nan quarter-finals.
Is this conscionable a statistical quirk, though, aliases are teams getting a genuine advantage by going second? Before nan 2026 World Cup, 18 of nan 35 punishment shootouts (51.4%) to return spot successful nan title had been won by nan squad going second, truthful almost an nonstop 50-50 split, suggesting nary advantage whatsoever. With nan astir caller four, that has gone up to 22 of 39 (56.4%), truthful it’s only really nan caller shootouts that propose going 2nd is best.
Indeed, earlier nan past 15 shootouts, only 9 of nan first 24 World Cup shootouts were won by nan squad going 2nd (37.5%), truthful possibly that’s wherever nan belief that going first was amended came from. Again, though, that still isn’t really a large capable information sample. We request to look astatine different competitions.
The first punishment shootout astatine nan European Championship was successful 1976 betwixt Czechoslovakia and West Germany, nan celebrated shootout wherever Antonin Panenka dinked successful nan winning penalty. In total, location person been 25 punishment shootouts successful nan Euros, of which 12 person been won by nan squad going 2nd (48%), truthful fundamentally nary difference.
There are much shootouts successful nine football, but what does nan information opportunity there? In nan history of nan European Cup, location person been 42 shootouts (not including qualifiers). In that competition, location does look to beryllium an advantage to going first, pinch only 16 teams winning erstwhile taking 2nd (38.1%). Of course, successful nan astir caller example, Paris Saint-Germain hit Arsenal successful nan last erstwhile they went first successful nan shootout.
That percent doesn’t widen to different competitions, though. There person been 75 punishment shootouts successful nan FA Cup since nan commencement of nan 2013-14 season. Forty-three of them (57.3%) person been won by nan squad going second. Notably, though, fixed nan inclination astatine nan World Cup, location has besides been much of a tilt towards teams taking nan 2nd punishment recently. Last season, location were 17 shootouts successful nan FA Cup, 12 of which were won by nan squad going 2nd (70.6%).
There person been 211 punishment shootouts successful nan League Cup since nan commencement of nan 2013-14 season. Four of those from nan 2017-18 play were successful nan ABBA format, wherever nan squad that went 2nd besides went third, past nan squad that had nan first punishment would besides person nan 4th and fifth, and truthful on. Funnily enough, that format was trialled owed to a belief that going first was excessively overmuch of an advantage, but we won’t count those here.
Remarkably, crossed nan 207 League Cup punishment shootouts we looked at, 104 were won by nan squad going 2nd (50.2%). So, nan title pinch nan astir information disposable ended up having nan closest return of 50-50 of each of them.
What tin we glean from each this, then? While location is thing to beryllium said for striking first, having nan opportunity to spell 1-0 up and instantly put unit connected nan opposition, it tin besides backfire. In 7 of nan past 15 World Cup shootouts, nan first footwear has been missed, giving an contiguous boost to nan squad going second. On each occasion, nan squad going 2nd has won.
Indeed, of nan 12 instances of a squad taking nan first punishment successful a World Cup shootout and missing it, only 2 person recovered to triumph – Sweden against Romania successful 1994 and Ukraine against Switzerland successful 2006.
There could beryllium a spot of confirmation bias/placebo effect astatine play, wherever teams are alert that going 2nd seems to beryllium an advantage, and conscionable by reasoning that, it calms them successful a nervy situation, truthful making it likelier they tin triumph moreover if really location is nary coagulated impervious it is really immoderate advantage whatsoever.
That being said, it is notable that of nan 4 shootouts astatine this World Cup, successful only 1 – Egypt’s triumph against Australia – did nan squad that won nan flip take to spell second. So isolated from possibly Mohamed Salah, location are nary different suggestions that teams person noticed nan shape and are electing to return nan 2nd penalty. Three retired of 4 captains still wanted to spell first, and nary of those 3 ended up connected nan winning side.
Ultimately, and we dream this conclusion is not excessively disappointing, we tin astir apt surmise that it doesn’t really matter whether a squad goes first aliases second. The information broadly points to it being adjacent capable to 50-50 crossed a agelong play that nan value of your punishment takers and goalkeeper are astir apt overmuch much important.
It will beryllium absorbing to spot if nan inclination astatine this World Cup continues, and really unsure captains look erstwhile nan coin is flipped by nan referee. First aliases second, nan astir important point is that you conscionable people arsenic galore penalties arsenic imaginable and dream that it’s enough.
This is an article by Opta Analyst
