Examining NATO: Inside the ‘commitment gap’ as US carries alliance deterrence

This is portion 1 of a bid examining nan challenges confronting nan NATO alliance.

As President Donald Trump ramps up unit connected NATO friends to summation defense spending — and orders nan withdrawal of 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany complete nan adjacent six to 12 months — a deeper rumor is coming into focus: moreover arsenic allied budgets rise, NATO still depends heavy connected American subject powerfulness to function.

NATO’s imbalance is not theoretical — and it is not new, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg told Fox News Digital, "I told nan president… possibly you ought to talk astir a gradual narration pinch NATO," Kellogg described conversations pinch Donald Trump successful his first word astir nan alliance’s future. "…we request to create a new, for deficiency of a amended term, a caller NATO a caller protect alignment pinch Europe."

Kellogg, who served arsenic a elder national security charismatic during Trump's first term, said nan confederation has expanded politically but not militarily — creating what he sees arsenic a increasing spread betwixt commitments and existent capability.

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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, U.S. President Donald Trump and Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer airs pinch NATO state leaders during nan NATO Heads of State and Government acme successful The Hague, Netherlands, connected June 25, 2025. (Ben Stansall/Pool/Reuters)

"You started pinch 12, and you went to 32, and successful nan process, I deliberation you diluted nan impact," he argued, calling today’s NATO "a very bloated architecture."

"They haven't put nan money into defense. Their defense manufacture and defense forces person atrophied. When you look astatine nan Brits correct now, they could hardly deploy forces: they person 2 craft carriers, some nether maintenance. Their brigades are for illustration 1 retired of six that work. And you conscionable look astatine nan capability, it's conscionable not there. So I deliberation we request to recognize that and say, well, we request thing different," Kellogg, who is nan co-chair of nan Center for American Security astatine nan America First Foreign Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital.

But not everyone agrees nan confederation is losing relevance.

"It has ne'er been much relevant," said John R. Deni, a investigation professor astatine nan U.S. Army War College, who says NATO remains cardinal to U.S. nationalist security.

"The logic for that is twofold," he said. "One, it’s our comparative advantage versus nan Chinese and nan Russians… they don’t person thing for illustration this."

"And nan 2nd reason… NATO underwrites nan information and stableness of our astir important waste and acquisition and finance relationship," he added, referring to economical ties betwixt North America and Europe.

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NATO Chiefs of Defense clasp a hybrid gathering successful Brussels connected Aug. 20, 2025, pinch screens displaying allied leaders joining remotely to talk Ukraine. (Fox News)

Dependence: Design aliases Weakness?

By astir 2010, nan United States accounted for astir 65% to 70% of NATO defense spending, according to study provided by Barak Seener from nan Henry Jackson Society, a London-based deliberation tank.

"They’ve ever been limited connected nan U.S.," Kellogg said of nan European allies.

"The friends wide trust upon 1 different for deterrence and defense by design," Deni said, explaining that alliances beryllium to "pool their resources" and "aggregate their individual strengths."

Deni pointed to crushed forces arsenic a clear illustration of what nan U.S. gains from nan alliance, noting that "there are acold much allied mechanized infantry forces connected nan crushed than location are Americans."

Still, he acknowledged that reliance has astatine times gone excessively far.

"In nan past… it was adjacent to opportunity that nan European friends were overly reliant upon nan Americans for accepted defense," he said, pointing to nan 2000s.

That, he said, was partially driven by U.S. priorities — arsenic Washington pushed European friends to attraction connected wars successful Afghanistan and Iraq alternatively than territorial defense.

A Polish Army worker sits successful a vessel arsenic a NATO emblem flies down during nan NATO Noble Jump VJTF exercises connected June 18, 2015, successful Zagan, Poland. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Seener describes NATO arsenic "formally collective, but functionally asymmetric," pinch nan U.S. providing a disproportionate stock of "high-end capabilities."

That asymmetry is astir visible successful atomic deterrence.

Seener said nan U.S. provides nan overwhelming mostly of NATO’s atomic arsenal — including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched systems and strategical bombers — meaning deterrence yet relies connected nan presumption of U.S. retaliation.

A NATO charismatic told Fox News Digital that, "The U.S. atomic deterrent cannot beryllium replaced, but it is clear that Europe needs to measurement up. There’s nary question. There needs to beryllium a amended equilibrium erstwhile it comes to our defense and security. Both because we spot nan captious domiciled nan U.S. plays astir nan world and nan resources that it demands, and besides because it is only fair."

"The bully news," nan charismatic added, "is that nan Allies are doing precisely that. They are stepping up, moving together — and pinch nan U.S. — to guarantee we collectively person what we request to deter and take sides 1 cardinal group surviving crossed nan Euro-Atlantic area."

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Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters of nan U.S. Army 12th Combat Aviation Brigade alert complete a Lithuanian Vilkas infantry fighting conveyance during nan Allied Spirit 25 subject workout adjacent Hohenfels, Germany, connected March 12, 2025.

The Systems NATO Cannot Replace

Beyond atomic weapons, nan dependence runs done nan alliance’s operational backbone.

Seener pointed to U.S.-provided intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance — arsenic good arsenic logistics and bid systems — arsenic basal to NATO operations.

"Without U.S. intelligence and surveillance, NATO loses situational consciousness and early informing capabilities," Seener said, adding, "So that intends that Russia, for example, tin onslaught Europe. And theoretically, if there's nary NATO and nan U.S. is not involved, Europe would not beryllium aware, aliases it would return it excessively agelong to beryllium capable to take sides itself."

Kellogg besides says that overmuch of Europe’s subject capacity falls short of top-tier systems.

"For nan astir part, their equipment, if you had to people it A, B, C, D, E, F, they’re benignant of for illustration B players aliases C players," he said. "It’s not nan first statement of work."

He pointed to aerial and rocket defense arsenic a cardinal gap, noting that while European countries trust connected U.S.-made systems specified arsenic Patriot and THAAD, "they don’t person a strategy that’s comparable."

Kellogg attributed that to years of underinvestment, saying European defense industries "have atrophied," adding that nan United States is besides now "relearning that arsenic well."

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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg looks connected arsenic President Donald Trump and Poland's President Andrzej Duda talk during a moving luncheon astatine nan NATO leaders acme successful Watford, Britain, connected Dec. 4, 2019. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

Deni said nan image coming is much mixed.

"Alliance defense spending has been up… and has spiked acold much aft 2022," he said, pointing to Russia’s penetration of Crimea successful 2014 arsenic a turning point.

But he cautioned that capacity gains return time, noting that galore improvements are still years distant from afloat deployment.

Deni pointed to caller European purchases of U.S. systems arsenic grounds of increasing capability, noting that countries including Poland, Romania, Norway and Denmark are acquiring nan F-35 combatant pitchy from nan U.S.

"You can’t build an F-35 overnight," he said, adding that galore of these improvements will return years to afloat materialize.

A NATO charismatic told Fox News Digital nan confederation "needs to move further and faster" to meet increasing threats, pointing to caller capacity targets agreed by defense ministers successful June 2025.

Keith Kellogg speaks during nan Warsaw Security Forum 2025 connected Sept. 30, 2025, successful Warsaw, Poland. (Marek Antoni Iwanczuk/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The charismatic said priorities see aerial and rocket defense, long-range weapons, logistics and ample onshore forces, noting that while specifications stay classified, plans telephone for a fivefold summation successful aerial and rocket defense, "thousands more" armored vehicles and tanks, and "millions more" artillery shells. NATO besides intends to double cardinal enabling capabilities specified arsenic logistics, proscription and aesculapian support.

The charismatic added that friends are expanding investments successful warships, aircraft, drones, long-range missiles, arsenic good arsenic abstraction and cyber capabilities, while boosting readiness and modernizing bid and control.

"These targets are now included successful nationalist plans," nan charismatic said, adding that friends must show really they will meet them done sustained defense spending and capacity development.

The NATO charismatic besides noted that European friends lead multinational forces crossed Central and Eastern Europe, while nan U.S. and Canada service arsenic model nations successful Poland and Latvia, alongside ongoing aerial policing missions and NATO’s KFOR cognition successful Kosovo.

One of 3 Swedish Air Force JAS 39 Gripen combatant craft takes disconnected from nan Blekinge Wing F17, based successful Kallinge confederate Sweden for a guidelines successful Sardinia to subordinate nan Nato-led cognition successful Libya, connected Saturday, April 2, 2011. As Sweden joins NATO, it bids a last farewell to much than 2 hundreds of years of neutrality. (AP Photo/Scanpix/Patric Soderstrom, File)

What happens if nan U.S. is stretched?

Kellogg’s informing is direct: NATO’s deterrence depends connected U.S. presence.

"The 1 you ever person to interest about… is Russia," Kellogg, who was Trump’s typical envoy for Ukraine and Russia successful 2025, said.

If U.S. forces are tied down elsewhere, NATO could look superior strain — peculiarly successful areas for illustration intelligence and logistics.

For Kellogg, nan threat is delay. "We won’t cognize until it happens," he said. "And past you won’t beryllium capable to respond to it."

Deni, however, said nan confederation remains a strategical plus — not a liability.

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A NATO subject unit stands defender extracurricular nan World Forum successful The Hague up of nan two-day NATO acme connected June 22, 2025. (Remko de Waal/ANP/AFP)

The question, he suggests, is not whether NATO still works. It is whether friends tin accommodate accelerated capable to support it working.