Europe has ‘maybe 6 weeks of jet fuel left,’ energy agency head warns – business live

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The European Union is drafting plans to tackle ​a looming pitchy substance proviso crunch and maximise refinery output, officials person said.

From adjacent month, nan European Commission will present EU-wide mapping of refining capacity for lipid products and present measures “to guarantee that existing refining capacity is afloat utilised and ​maintained”, a draught proposal seen by Reuters said.

Thomas Pugh, main economist astatine audit, taxation and consulting firm RSM UK, says:

A floor plan showing pitchy substance prices Photograph: RSM

Jet substance prices person already been rising sharply, hitting airlines’ profitability.

The fund hose easyJet warned this greeting that nan effect of nan Iran warfare connected bookings and lipid prices will deed its profits, having driven up substance costs by £25m successful nan past period alone.

It said it expected to study an accrued pre-tax nonaccomplishment of £540-£560m for nan six months to March, up from £394m successful nan first half of 2024-25. The bearer typically makes its money successful nan 2nd half of nan twelvemonth which includes nan highest summertime period.

The hose said it remained assured successful its substance supply. While it has hedged 70% of its needs for nan remainder of nan financial twelvemonth to September, it said that each $100 (£74) activity successful nan spot value pitchy of substance per metric tonne was adding £40m successful costs for its unhedged proviso – and presently nan value is astir $800 higher than earlier nan conflict started.

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Europe has 'maybe 6 weeks of pitchy substance left,' power agency caput warns

The caput of nan International Energy Agency has warned that Europe has astir six weeks of pitchy substance left.

In an question and reply pinch Associated Press published today, IEA executive head Fatih Birol warned that formation cancellations could statesman “soon” if lipid supplies stay blocked by nan Iran war.

Birol said Europe has “maybe 6 weeks aliases truthful (of) pitchy substance left,” aft nan effective closure of nan strait of Hormuz led to “the largest power situation we person ever faced.”

He told AP that nan effect will beryllium “higher petrol (gasoline) prices, higher state prices, precocious energy prices,” adding that immoderate parts of nan world will beryllium deed worse than others.

“The beforehand statement is nan Asian countries” that trust connected power from nan Middle East, he said, naming Japan, Korea, India, China, Pakistan and Bangladesh, adding:

double quotation mark“Then it will travel to Europe and nan Americas.”

And if nan strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened, Birol said that for Europe:

double quotation mark“I tin show you soon we will perceive nan news that immoderate of nan flights from metropolis A to metropolis B mightiness beryllium canceled arsenic a consequence of deficiency of pitchy fuel.”

The US is presently blockading Iranian ports, whiel Tehran has laid mines successful nan captious waterway to restrict postulation done nan strait.

Yesterday, IMF main Kristalina Georgieva warned that nan disruption from nan Middle East conflict would proceed moreover aft nan warfare stops, explaining:

double quotation mark“We request to recognise disruptions are not going to evaporate overnight moreover if nan warfare ends tomorrow. Why? Because a tanker is simply a slow-moving vessel. It would return 40 days to get each nan measurement to Fiji.”

Aluminium hits four-year precocious connected Middle East proviso worries

Ouch! Aluminium prices person deed a four-year precocious today, adding to nan inflationary pressures connected companies.

Benchmark three-month aluminium connected nan London Metal Exchange roseate arsenic precocious arsenic $3,672 a metric ton this morning, its highest level since March 24, 2022.

Reuters reports that nan world aluminium marketplace is facing a proviso shortage this twelvemonth owed to nan Iran war.

One Gulf shaper warned earlier this period that afloat restoring accumulation astatine 1 of its UAE smelters deed by an Iranian onslaught successful precocious March could return up to a year.

The Middle East accounts for astir 9% of world accumulation of aluminium, and Chinese aluminium exports are expected to emergence arsenic buyers look for different sources of nan metal.

Eurozone ostentation revised up to 2.6% successful March

Over successful nan eurozone, ostentation was faster than initially reported successful March,as nan Iran warfare drove up costs.

Statistics assemblage Eurostat has calculated that user prices roseate by 2.6% successful nan twelvemonth to March crossed nan azygous rate block, up from an first estimate of 2.5%.

It says:

double quotation markThe lowest yearly rates were registered successful Denmark (1.0%), Czechia, Cyprus and Sweden (all 1.5%). The highest yearly rates were recorded successful Romania (9.0%), Croatia (4.6%) and Lithuania (4.4%). Compared pinch February 2026, yearly ostentation fell successful 3 Member States, remained unchangeable successful 1 and roseate successful twenty-three.

Energy prices were 5.1% higher than a twelvemonth ago, while services ostentation came successful astatine 3.2%, and unprocessed nutrient ostentation was 4.2%.

UK GDP: More master reaction

Today’s GDP study suggsts nan UK system began to move a area aft nan Autumn Statement and earlier nan latest developments successful nan Middle East, says Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC:

double quotation markThe UK system looked to beryllium uncovering its feet, but geopolitics whitethorn yet footwear nan chair away. Output grew by 0.5% successful nan 3 months to February, pinch some accumulation and services expanding together.

More importantly, this was maturation powered by nan backstage assemblage alternatively than nan nationalist sector-dominated parts of nan system that had propped up overmuch of nan post-2023 picture. That suggested nan betterment was becoming broader and much durable.

But nan mobility now is whether that betterment tin withstand nan caller outer daze from nan Middle East.

Chris Beauchamp, chief marketplace expert uk astatine investing and trading level IG, says Rachel Reeves and Kier Starmer request to beryllium observant astir doing a triumph lap:

double quotation markA look backmost astatine past twelvemonth shows that April 2025 was besides good, but past things took a decidedly mediocre turn. Companies crossed nan UK are informing astir nan outlook for net and user spending, and pinch power costs hitting consumers hard, today’s bully news could move to particulate each excessively quickly.”

Andrew Wishart, senior UK economist astatine Berenberg, warns that nan Iran warfare will snuff retired nan UK’s early 2026 momentum, adding:

double quotation markEven earlier nan war, we doubted that nan system could bask a sustained acceleration. Flat employment, decelerating salary maturation and a rising individual taxation load were group to trim existent family spending power.

Now we tin adhd higher power prices and owe liking rates to nan database of headwinds. Businesses, meanwhile, look different input costs daze conscionable arsenic they were overcoming nan past 1 (minimum costs and payroll taxation hikes). Amid constricted pricing power, nan compression connected profitability will astir apt measurement connected output and employment arsenic overmuch arsenic it generates cost-push inflation.

Pre-war, a slowdown successful ostentation to an acceptable gait should person provided a metallic lining to our below-consensus 2026 maturation forecast. The caller power value daze intends nan UK must now strengthen some weaker maturation and higher inflation, postponing slope complaint cuts but not derailing them.

The UK economy’s 0.5% maturation successful February looks to beryllium nan fastest monthly description since January 2024 (when GDP besides roseate by 0.5%).

However, nan cardinal constituent is that this spot is apt backward-looking alternatively than trend-defining, warns Daniela Hathorn, elder marketplace expert at Capital.com:

double quotation markThe UK system had been moving astatine a very subdued gait heading into nan year, pinch maturation hovering astir zero successful erstwhile months. This makes February’s jump much of a rebound from weakness than nan commencement of a sustained upswing. In different words, nan system is still fragile, and a azygous beardown people does small to alteration that broader narrative.

Taiwan overtakes UK successful banal marketplace worth arsenic AI spot roar continues

Taiwan’s banal marketplace has overtaken nan UK, aft a surge successful nan worth of its exertion sector.

Bloomberg information shows that Taiwan’s marketplace capitalization roseate to $4.14trn yesterday, making it nan world’s seventh largest, up of nan UK’s marketplace which was was weighted astatine astir $4.09trn.

The landmark came earlier Taiwan’s benchmark banal scale deed a grounds precocious today, lifted by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. which reported a 35% summation successful quarterly revenue, indicating request for AI systems remains robust,

Bloomberg says:

double quotation mark“Taiwan continues to beryllium treated arsenic an AI hardware proxy,” said Yoon Ng, caput of APAC plus guidance maturation solutions astatine Broadridge Financial Solutions. “As agelong arsenic AI capex momentum holds, flows should stay supportive.”

Investec: It's not each bully news....

There is immoderate disappoinment successful today’s mostly uplifting UK GDP report.

It shows that nan system really stagnated successful nan 2nd half of 2025, alternatively than increasing by 0.1% successful July-September and October-December.

Sandra Horsfield, economist at Investec, explains:

double quotation markNot each was bully news: revisions to backmost information mean that Q3 and Q4 GDP maturation is now reported arsenic zero, whereas it was +0.1% antecedently for some quarters.

With that, it is rather imaginable that full-year 2025 GDP maturation is revised down successful nan adjacent quarterly nationalist accounts release: monthly GDP figures constituent to a maturation complaint of 1.2%, whereas nan latest quarterly nationalist accounts figures had put GDP maturation astatine 1.4%.

(From today, nan ONS has changed its revision argumentation truthful monthly GDP tin now beryllium revised much often than before.) So immoderate of nan beardown February numbers request to beryllium viewed arsenic bounceback from a little base.

Here’s Susannah Streeter, chief finance strategist astatine Wealth Club, on nan pick-up connected nan London banal marketplace this morning:

double quotation mark'‘The Footsie is disconnected connected nan beforehand ft successful early trade, boosted by hopes of a ceasefire being extended successful nan Middle East and a astonishment boost successful nan UK’s maturation story.

There are overmuch amended marks connected nan UK’s economical study paper aft nan astonishment acceleration successful activity successful February. The 0.5% summation was overmuch stronger than nan 0.1% maturation fig forecast. This is heartening news, fixed it shows location is much resilience to woody pinch nan repercussions of nan Iran war. Earlier snapshots indicated that nan activity had been flatlining, but maturation for January has besides been revised upwards.

Banks, retailers and housebuilders are among nan gainers successful early waste and acquisition arsenic nan UK’s fortunes move a small much positive.

Hopes of an extremity to nan Iran warfare are pushing up banal markets again today.

In London, nan FTSE 100 stock scale has gained 0.24%, up 25 points to 10,585 points (it was complete 10,900 earlier nan conflict began, but fell beneath 10,000 during March).

Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC stock indices are besides up astir 0.2%.

This follows gains connected Wall Street past night, wherever nan S&P 500 scale deed a caller grounds high.

News that nan US and Iran person been successful indirect talks aimed astatine extending their existent two-week ceasefire are lifting stocks.

Michael Brown, elder investigation strategist astatine brokerage Pepperstone,says:

double quotation markBy and large, participants proceed to attraction connected nan imaginable ray astatine nan extremity of nan passageway erstwhile it comes to conflict successful nan Middle East, not only arsenic nan US-Iran ceasefire continues to hold, but besides arsenic nan ‘mood music’ much broadly remains comparatively positive.

On that note, reporting (via AP) yesterday indicated that nan US and Iran had achieved an ‘in rule agreement’ to widen nan ceasefire for different fortnight, and that further talks betwixt nan 2 would return spot ‘soon’. At consequence of repetition, this serves to again underscore that nan ‘direction of travel’ is still starring towards de-escalation, arsenic good arsenic reaffirming that some sides are still seeking a deal.

Tesco warns profits could autumn amid Iran warfare uncertainty

Tesco has warned that profits could autumn backmost successful nan twelvemonth up amid “increased uncertainty caused by nan conflict successful nan Middle East”.

The informing came aft nan UK’s biggest supermarket deed its highest stock of nan marketplace successful a decade.

It revealed profits had risen 8.5% to £2.4bn successful nan twelvemonth to 28 February arsenic income roseate by 4.3% to £66.6bn, including beardown maturation successful nan UK.

The retailer paid shop floor, distribution workers and different frontline unit a £65m “special capacity award” successful ray of nan results, while shareholders person received £937m successful dividends during nan year.

However, nan institution said it had “widened” its guidance connected profits for nan twelvemonth up to £3bn to £3.3bn, adding:

double quotation mark“Much will dangle upon nan long of nan conflict and successful particular, nan imaginable implications for UK households and nan system much broadly.”

Capital Economics: maturation my now slow to a crawl

The UK’s “bumper maturation successful February” has astir apt already been mostly extinguished by nan Middle East crisis, warns Capital Economics.

Ruth Gregory, lawman main UK economist astatine Capital Economics, says:

double quotation markGDP roseate by a bumper 0.5% m/m successful February but March’s activity PMIs propose nan warfare successful Iran has already all-but extinguished growth. And successful our baseline script we deliberation GDP maturation will slow from 1.4% successful 2025, possibly to conscionable 0.7% this year.

Gregory fears maturation will “slow to a crawl successful nan coming quarters”, saying:

double quotation markThe stronger February outturn than we expected astir apt meant that GDP grew by 0.6% q/q aliases truthful successful Q1, alternatively than 0.3% q/q arsenic we antecedently thought. But nan leap successful power prices intends location is improbable to beryllium overmuch maturation aft that.

[PMIs are a study of purchasing managers, which showed nan biggest jump successful costs since 1992 past month]

Anna Leach, main economist astatine nan Institute of Directors, warns that nan UK is ‘uniquely vulnerable’ to nan power shock:

double quotation mark“Revisions to GDP show that, up of nan conflict successful nan Middle East, nan system was picking up from a dip successful activity past summer. However, arsenic nan conflict drags on, reports proceed to turn of escalating power costs, paused determination making and concerns complete imaginable shortages of captious inputs.

The UK’s tight financing conditions, precocious first starting constituent for inflation, uncompetitive power costs and debased fiscal space, make america uniquely susceptible to nan situation.

JP Morgan: lipid value spike could mean nan UK economy's return to maturation is short-lived

Scott Gardner, finance strategist at J.P. Morgan Personal Investing fears nan UK’s maturation pick-up whitethorn not last, owed to nan Iran war.

double quotation mark“The UK system hit expectations successful February, showing beardown maturation during nan period earlier nan warfare pinch Iran collapsed out. While this is simply a affirmative reading, nan uncertain business successful nan Middle East and resulting spike successful lipid prices could mean this return to maturation is short-lived.

“In February, business accumulation and services roseate sharply. The emergence was partially offset by manufacturing activity contracting. Retail income fell aft a stronger than expected January while nan spot marketplace remains subdued.

“Looking ahead, nan conflict successful nan Middle East and escalation successful nan Strait of Hormuz has dented nan maturation outlook for nan UK economy. Oil prices had already been rising successful caller months, but nan latest spike could beryllium particularly achy for businesses and consumers done higher costs and elevated liking rates.

The grade to which nan conflict hits UK maturation this twelvemonth will hinge connected nan long of nan disruption successful nan Strait of Hormuz and persistence of nan lipid value shock, Gardner adds.

February's maturation shows UK astir apt connected "a stronger footing" than expected earlier power shock

February’s GDP study shows “the calm earlier nan storm” that is now hitting nan UK system from nan Middle East, reports Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank’s main economist.

Raja says February GDP “smashed expectations” by coming successful pinch “a thumping 0.5%” maturation month-on-month this morning.

He says it shows forecasters were excessively pessimistic astir UK maturation astatine nan commencement of nan year, and predicts we’ll spot decent maturation of up to 0.6% successful nan first 4th of this year.

double quotation markOur nowcast models now show Q1-26 GDP maturation returning backmost to our original forecast from nan commencement of nan year: 0.5-0.6% q/q, reflecting immoderate affirmative payback aft a very sluggish 2nd half successful 2025. Given today’s data, spending looks stronger than anticipated. And firms whitethorn besides beryllium investing much than we thought heading into nan Iran conflict.

But nan effect of higher power prices, and weaker business investment, will wounded maturation this year, he adds:

double quotation markThe bully news is that nan UK apt entered nan power daze connected a stronger footing than galore expected. Q1-26 GDP maturation will apt deed much than double nan quarterly complaint galore forecasters expected, besides lifting yearly GDP maturation projections. The bad news is that upward GDP momentum won’t last. This will apt beryllium nan maturation earlier nan power squeeze.

Households will person already started to consciousness nan effect of nan Iran power shock, impacting disposable incomes and discretionary spending. Pump prices are up complete 20% since nan lipid daze occurred. And dual substance bills are owed to emergence by a akin magnitude complete nan summer. Businesses will besides apt beryllium pulling backmost finance plans, hiring plans, and lowering costs maturation arsenic a result. As such, expect much sluggish maturation into Q2-26 (and beyond).”