1 month ago
Introduction: BP profits double arsenic Iran warfare drives up power prices
Good morning, and invited to our rolling sum of business, nan financial markets and nan world economy.
The Iran warfare has helped BP to double its profits successful nan first 4th of this year, its latest financial results show.
The lipid awesome has conscionable reported that it made a profit of astir $3.2bn successful nan first 3 months of 2026, connected its favoured ‘underlying replacement cost’ net measure.
That’s higher than City analysts had predicted, pinch BP - which was deed by a shareholder rebellion past week – giving immoderate of nan in installments to an “exceptional” publication from its lipid trading operations.
These quarterly profits are up from $1.54bn successful nan 4th fourth of 2025, and $1.38bn successful nan first 4th of past year.
Q1 2026 includes nan surge successful lipid and state prices successful March, aft nan warfare began astatine nan extremity of February, disrupting power supplies from nan region.
BP’s caller CEO, Meg O’Neill, acknowledges nan effect of nan Middlle East conflict, saying nan institution is moving successful an “environment of conflict and complexity”.
O’Neill says BP is “working pinch customers and governments to get substance wherever it’s needed” – astatine a clip erstwhile fears of pitchy substance shortages are growing.
She adds:
double quotation markOverall, our business continues to tally well. This was different 4th of beardown operational and financial delivery, and we made further advancement towards our 2027 targets. We had precocious works reliability, precocious refining readiness and accrued accumulation successful nan Gulf of America and astatine bpx Energy, our US onshore business - keeping accumulation levels dependable contempt nan ongoing disruption.
The surge successful power prices is worrying cardinal banks, galore of whom are mounting liking rates this week.
Overnight, nan Bank of Japan near borrowing costs unchanged, but 3 policymakers did break ranks and ballot for a hike….
The agenda
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9am BST: ECB study of Consumer Inflation Expectations successful nan eurozone (timing corrected)
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2pm BST: US location value data: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM
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3pm BST: US user assurance data
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Rachel Reeves besides pledged to do everything imaginable to thief group renting their homes successful nan backstage sector.
After nan Guardian reported this greeting that nan chancellor is considering a one-year frost connected rent increases, she told MPs:
double quotation mark“I will do everything successful my powerfulness and usage each lever we person to carnivore down connected nan costs of living, including for group successful nan backstage rented sector.”
Bloomberg are reporting that Saudi Aramco is suspending liquefied petroleum state shipments adjacent period aft harm to its main export installation successful precocious February – conscionable earlier nan Iran warfare began – trim disconnected supplies of nan fuel.
The authorities shaper informed buyers precocious that shipments from nan Juaymah LPG installation would proceed to beryllium suspended done May, “according to group acquainted pinch nan matter”.
Shipments from Juaymah were halted successful nan week earlier nan US-Israeli bombing of Irann began, aft a portion of nan transportation strategy carrying propane and butane was structurally damaged.
Juaymah is connected nan Saudi coastline successful nan Gulf, truthful shipments would beryllium disrupted anyhow by nan closure of nan strait of Hormuz….
Reeves: Important to support windfall taxation connected lipid and state companies
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is pledging to instrumentality pinch nan existent windfall taxation connected lipid and state companies successful nan UK.
Asked astir BP’s surge successful profits, astatine Treasury questions successful Parliament today, Reeves says nan Energy Profits Levy allows nan authorities to taxation immoderate of nan profits made by power giants during nan Iran war.
The chancellor tells MPs:
double quotation markThe lipid and state assemblage will play an important portion successful our power operation for galore years to come, and we request to support them, arsenic we are for illustration through tiebacks.
But it is important that nan power profits levy remains successful spot for now. During this conflict we will beryllium capable to seizure nan profits made successful nan UK done nan windfall tax.
The Conservatives and Reform reason this tax, and this would simply mean moreover higher profits for nan lipid and state industry.
The Energy Profits Levy is 38%, lifting nan header complaint of taxation connected upstream lipid and state activities to 78%. It only applies to a company’s net wrong nan UK, though, and doesn’t drawback profits made successful nan remainder of nan world.
GM: Tariffs will costs america $500m little aft Supreme Court ruling
US carmaker GM has lifted its profit forecasts, aft Donald Trump’s Supreme Court conclusion complete his sweeping tariffs.
GM has lifted its guidance for adjusted EBIT (earnings earlier liking and tax) this year, aft “a favorable adjustment” of astir $500m resulting from nan ruling that tariffs claimed nether nan International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful.
GM now expects gross tariff costs of $2.5bn to $3.5bn successful 2026, down from nan original estimate of $3.0bn to $4.0bn.
Earlier this month, nan Trump management began accepting applications from businesses seeking refunds for much than $166bn successful tariffs, aft nan ultimate tribunal ruled successful February that nan president had nary ineligible authority to enforce them.
NatWest chair: we judge profoundly successful UK's semipermanent strengths
NatWest’s AGM is up and moving again, aft that earlier disruption, and chair Rick Haythornthwaite is telling investors that nan UK’s system still has “long-term” strengths.
Haythornthwaite says:
double quotation markOver caller years, uncertainty and volatility person been a persistent characteristic of our operating environment. Growth is present, but it is uneven. It varies by sector, by region and by levels of financial resilience, and it demands subject and selectivity. What has been striking complete nan past twelvemonth is that behaviours person often proved much resilient than sentiment. Across households and businesses, group proceed to plan, put and adapt, moreover successful nan look of uncertainty, but pinch greater subject and a renewed attraction connected returns and worth for money.
We should beryllium clear: location are near-term challenges. Recent world events mean pressures person elevated for galore households and businesses. From a Board perspective, maintaining a longer‑term position is essential, and we judge profoundly successful nan semipermanent strengths of nan UK.
NatWest AGM disrupted
Over successful Edinburgh, NatWest slope has begun its yearly gathering pinch shareholders, and past briskly adjourned it.
There was immoderate shouting, and past immoderate singing, audible connected nan unrecorded provender from nan AGM earlier it was suspended – for 15 minutes, though it’s been longer now….
Campaign groups had already called for protestation votes against nan bank’s chair, Rick Haythornthwaite, today, amid accusation of ‘climate backtracking’ by nan bank.
Reuters are reporting that ambiance protesters disrupted nan meeting, according to a spokesperson.
BP’s profit surge successful nan first 4th of this twelvemonth astir apt won’t last, owed to nan disruption to power infrastructure since nan Iran warfare began, predicts Kathleen Brooks, research head astatine XTB.
After BP reported results that “smashed expectations”, Brooks says:
double quotation markIn fairness, an lipid awesome that makes bags of money during an power value daze should not beryllium a surprise. Its stock value was higher by 3%, aft it reported profits of $3.8bn, driven by beardown lipid trading revenue.
This is simply a bully commencement for caller CEO Meg O’Neil, but nan mobility is, will it last? The reply is astir apt no, arsenic nan institution besides noted level accumulation levels owed to disruption astatine its sites successful nan Middle East.
UK market ostentation slows
UK market ostentation has slowed this month, caller information shows, contempt nan disruption caused by nan Iran war.
Worldpanel by Numerator has reported that like-for-like market ostentation fell to 3.8% successful nan 4 weeks to 19 April, which is nan lowest complaint successful a year.
Prices are rising fastest successful markets specified arsenic medicines & treatments, caller unprocessed nutrient and caller unprocessed fish, and are falling fastest successful chilled food & spreads, sweetener confectionery and family paper.
The study recovered that shoppers are seeking retired deals owed to concerns astir rising prices – spending connected promoted items roseate by 7.8% twelvemonth connected year.
Fraser McKevitt, caput of unit and user penetration astatine Worldpanel by Numerator, explains:
double quotation mark“Concerns astir nan effect of nan Middle East conflict connected prices of mundane equipment are beforehand of mind for British households. Already emotion nan compression astatine nan petrol pump, shoppers are responding by turning to typical offers successful increasing numbers erstwhile buying groceries.”
Bloomberg: Japanese crude lipid supertanker attempting to sail done strait of Hormuz
A laden Japan-linked supertanker appears to sailing done nan Strait of Hormuz, successful what whitethorn beryllium nan first effort by an lipid bearer from nan state to time off nan Gulf since nan Iran warfare began.
Bloomberg has nan details:
double quotation markThe Idemitsu Maru began sailing precocious Monday toward nan strait from northwest of Abu Dhabi, wherever it had idled for much than a week, search information show.
It appeared to move northbound toward Iran’s Qeshm and Larak Islands, past sail past Larak toward nan eastbound broadside of nan strait. It’s carrying 2 cardinal barrels of crude loaded from Saudi Arabia’s Juaymah terminal successful early March.
At nan commencement of April a liquefied earthy state tanker co-owned by nan Japanese institution Mitsui OSK Lines sailed done nan strait.
Tax Justice UK: Profiteering companies should look further excess profits taxes
The UK authorities should ‘get a grip’ connected power companies, banks aliases weapons makers who make excessive profits from nan Iran war, and taxation those earnings, says Caitlin Boswell, deputy head astatine Tax Justice UK.
double quotation mark“It is outrageous that households are getting hammered connected each sides from rising bills and prices of essentials, while companies for illustration BP are doubling their profits, each from nan aforesaid crisis. The authorities needs to get a grip connected nan business to extremity companies from callous profiteering, whether successful nan power sector, banking aliases defense.
We request nan authorities to stay patient successful maintaining nan windfall taxation connected lipid and state companies, and use further excess profits taxes connected those profiting from nan crisis. That way, nan authorities tin recoup each unearned profits to thief group get done nan affordability situation and make nan UK much resilient to early shocks.”
