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For astir sports and play fans, nan PGA TOUR play efficaciously ended past week aft The 154th Open Championship, golf's last awesome of nan year. However, location are nary weeks disconnected for america golf-betting degenerates, and nan money won astatine this week's 3M Open astatine TPC Twin Cities successful Blaine, Minnesota, is still green.
TPC Twin Cities is simply a classical Midwest birdie-fest designed by Arnold Palmer, wherever debased scores are mandatory. With h2o hazards lurking connected 15 holes, driving accuracy and precise robust play are crucial. While nan bentgrass greens are gentle, spraying disconnected nan tee guarantees a accelerated summons home.
Somehow, 3M convinced World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler to alert from England to Minnesota, wherever he will make his tourney debut. Maybe Scottie wants to break retired of his slump; aft all, he hasn't won since nan first arena of nan season: The American Express. Or possibly 3M conscionable made Scheffler an connection he couldn't refuse.
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Like Scottie, I've only deed 1 outright this season, and I'm hoping for amended luck successful Minnesota this week. Despite Scheffler cashing a top-five stake for maine astatine past week's British Open, I still mislaid 2.52 units (u), bringing my 2026 PGA TOUR equilibrium to -53.52u. All this intends is that I'm due. Without further ado, present are my horses for nan people for TPC Twin Cities.
The pursuing likelihood are based connected my erstwhile bets connected nan golfers listed below. Subject to change.
🇯🇵 Hideki Matsuyama +3604 astatine Polymarket (0.55u) and Top-10 pinch ties +295 astatine Kalshi (0.5u)
🇺🇸 Ben Kohles +7400 (0.27u) and Top-20 pinch ties +225 (0.5u), some astatine DraftKings
🇩🇰 Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson +7884 astatine Polymarket (0.25u) and Top-20 pinch ties +252 at Kalshi (0.5u)
🇿🇦 Casey Jarvis +8233 (0.24u) astatine Polymarket and Top-20 pinch ties +239 astatine DraftKings (0.5u)
🇦🇷 Emiliano Grillo +10000 astatine DraftKings (0.2u) and Top-20 pinch ties +310 astatine Kalshi (0.5u)
Hideki Matsuyama
The bottommost statement is Hideki is by acold nan second-best subordinate successful this section and his likelihood should beryllium beneath +2000. He has been each complete nan spot pinch his driver this season. Still, he has gained strokes connected nan section successful driving accuracy successful 3 consecutive starts: U.S. Open (major), nan Travelers Championship ("signature event") and The Open Championship (major).
Hideki Matsuyama hits his attack changeable connected nan 14th spread during nan 3M Open 2023 astatine TPC Twin Cities successful Blaine, Minnesota. (Matt Krohn-Imagn Images)
Matsuyama’s TPC Twin Cities grounds is thing to brag astir — T7 successful 2019, withdrew successful 2022 and T30 successful 2023 — but astatine slightest he has acquisition here. There are plentifulness of birdie opportunities astatine TPC Twin Cities, arsenic agelong arsenic you don’t deed into 1 of nan galore bodies of water, and these greens are easy. Hideki has gained strokes putting successful 5 of his past six starts, per DataGolf.com, and 3 of nan 4 fields this twelvemonth (The Masters, PGA Championship, British Open).
Ben Kohles
Believe it aliases not, this winless jabroni is first successful my exemplary astatine Bet The Number. Granted, driving accuracy and robust play are my 2 astir important skills for my 3M Open model, and Kohles leads nan section successful driving accuracy complete nan past 40 rounds and ranks 2nd successful Strokes Gained (SG): Approach. Yet, it’s still ridiculous to spot him up of Scottie.
Nevertheless, Kohles ranks 19th successful this section for SG: Putting complete nan past 12 rounds, per Bet The Number, which is his biggest weakness. He could’ve, should’ve won nan 2026 John Deere Classic a fewer weeks agone but choked it distant pinch a double bogey connected nan last spread to decorativeness T3.
Ben Kohles reacts to hitting his shot into a h2o hazard connected nan last information of nan 2026 John Deere Classic. (Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images)
That said, I'm choosing to look astatine that arsenic a bully point because he sewage into contention, and you request to beryllium successful it to triumph it. Lastly, a batch of longshots person won nan 3M Open and Kohles’ crippled fits TPC Twin Cities, making thing supra +6000 a "good number."
Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson
A prodigious driver, Rasmus has gained strokes off-the-tee successful 12 consecutive starts, per DataGolf.com, including The Masters, PGA Championship and British Open. He’s made six consecutive cuts, pinch his champion decorativeness successful a single-person arena being a T9 astatine past week’s Open Championship.
Neergaard-Peterson has gotten successful nan operation astatine different high-profile events, specified arsenic a T3 astatine nan 2025 DP World Tour Championship successful November, followed by a triumph astatine nan 2025 Crown Australian Open a period later.
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According to Bet The Number, which only factors successful PGA TOUR shot-link data, nan Dane ranks 12th successful this section successful SG: Putting complete nan past 12 rounds. Bombers who person a basking putting week person won 5 of nan 7 3M Opens, and Neergaard-Peterson fits that mold.
Casey Jarvis
This is 1 of nan astir random play bets I’ve ever made, which is saying a lot. I’ve ne'er seen Jarvis play before, and he’s not moreover a full-time PGA TOUR pro. But I saw he had +5652 likelihood astatine Bookmaker astatine nan clip of writing, which is measurement off-market from nan ineligible U.S. sportsbooks and prediction markets. That’s important because Bookmaker is considered a "sharp sportsbook" for play betting.
After seeing that Jarvis was steamed astatine Bookmaker, I wanted to fig retired why. Surprisingly, nan South African ranks 2nd connected nan DP World Tour this twelvemonth successful changeable mean and has 2 wins. Before you poo-poo his DP World Tour standing, cognize that those rankings see Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed and Tommy Fleetwood, among different full-time PGA TOUR pros.
Furthermore, Jarvis vanished T21 astatine nan Genesis Scottish Open 2 weeks ago, a co-sanctioned arena betwixt nan PGA TOUR and DP World Tour, and T6 past week astatine The Open Championship. Jarvis is only 22-years-old, truthful possibly he tin really play. At this price, successful this anemic field, I’m consenting to return a changeable connected him.
Emiliano Grillo
TPC Twin Cities is Grillo’s Happy Place. Here is his grounds successful nan 3M Open: T20 past year, T24 successful 2024, T10 successful 2023, T2 successful 2022, missed trim successful 2021 and T3 successful 2020. The Argentinian is 12th connected TOUR this play successful driving accuracy and has gained strokes connected nan section successful driving accuracy successful his six appearances astatine TPC Twin Cities.
Emiliano Grillo hits from nan fairway connected nan first spread during nan 3rd information of nan 3M Open 2022 successful Blaine, Minnesota. (Matt Krohn/USA Today Sports)
Grillo is simply a notoriously weak-to-inconsistent putter, but he’s gained strokes connected nan greens successful 5 of his six 3M Opens and 3 consecutive starts heading into TPC Twin Cities, including astatine Shinnecock for nan U.S. Open, which has 1 of nan astir difficult greenish complexes successful nan world.
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As you tin show by my season-long record, it’s reliable to triumph a play tournament. However, Emiliano loves this course, and he should execute amended than his likelihood propose and astatine slightest decorativeness successful nan apical 20.
3M Open 2026 'One-and-Done' Pick: Emiliano Grillo
Mayo Cup play standings: 4,482nd pinch $5,146,536
Who cares? I'm dormant successful this contest, and I'd request nan first spot for this tourney to beryllium worthy 4 times arsenic overmuch to make immoderate notable betterment successful nan standings. But, alternatively than beryllium a coward and omit this section, I'll ain up to my garbage play successful play betting and play each nan holes.
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Follow maine connected X @Geoffery-Clark, and cheque retired my "OutKick Bets Podcast" for much betting contented and random rants.
Geoff Clark serves arsenic OutKick’s sports betting guru.
