2025 Mizzou Football Opponent Previews: A Recap

Arkansas

Thirteen weeks agone I began my previews of each regular play force connected Missouri’s 2025 schedule, and arsenic of past week, I’m done! My dream is that you learned thing absorbing astir nan soiled twelve nan Tigers will beryllium squaring disconnected against this twelvemonth and get a amended thought of what Mizzou will beryllium facing heading into Eli Drinkwitz’s sixth twelvemonth astatine nan helm.

With nan team-specific previews done, let’s return a measurement backmost and look astatine nan postulation of teams arsenic a 12-unit sample size and rank them based connected various factors. Say...Bill Connelly’s factors that spell into preseason rankings, what do you think?

Let’s commencement will Bill C’s factors that spell into standing assemblage shot teams headed into nan season.

In nan 13-team sample size of nan 2025 opponents (plus Missouri), you tin break down nan 5-year recruiting rankings into 4 tiers: Tier 1 has Alabama arsenic acold and distant nan champion recruiting team, followed by a gigantic gap, followed by Tier 2 of Texas A&M/Oklahoma/Auburn. Tier 3 holds Missouri/South Carolina/Mississippi State/Arkansas pinch Tier 4 containing Vanderbilt/Kansas and nan dreadful “they’re trying!/G5 teams” Tier 5 of Louisiana and Massachusetts. I put Central Arkansas’ recruiting rankings successful location but...uh...yeah it’s FCS and they ain’t awesome truthful I’m not really putting them successful a tier.

Of this list, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kansas and UMass each saw their recruiting efforts dip from 2024 to 2025 which, fixed nan discourse of nan House colony and an wide rebudgeting effort LET ALONE really you put re: keeping your existing team, nary of those are a large surprise. Why? Those teams either deed nan portal SUPER difficult aliases had a talented squad they wanted to support around, which intends little backing for precocious schoolhouse recruits. On nan flip side, A&M, Auburn, Missouri, South Carolina, Mississippi State, and Louisiana saw either dependable recruiting efforts aliases improvements.

It’s besides worthy noting that Missouri plays 4 teams pinch Blue Chip Ratios complete 50%. As a reminder, nan blue-chip ratio takes a look astatine each nan recruits a squad has brought successful and divides nan number of players connected nan roster classed a 4- aliases 5-star arsenic a imaginable by nan full players that are presently connected nan squad (minus walk-ons). Missouri’s existent BCR is 42% while they will spell up against Auburn (64%), Oklahoma (70%), Texas A&M (82%), and Alabama (89%) this year. All different teams nan Tigers will play person BCRs nether 50%. As a last note, past twelvemonth Mizzou faced 4 teams successful nan regular play pinch a BCR complete 50% and went 2-2 against those teams (wins against Auburn and Oklahoma, blow-out losses to A&M and Bama).

For nan first clip successful 3 years Missouri is not adjacent nan apical of nan federation successful returning production, nor is it moreover nan apical returning accumulation squad among its schedule.

Instead, nan Tigers remainder successful nan middle-top information of nan state astatine 56th wide pinch a 58% returning accumulation rate. If you’ve followed this squad moreover remotely for nan past 8 months you cognize that nan discourtesy returns almost thing from past year’s squad (44%, 101st) and a ton connected defense.

Those precocious returning accumulation numbers person been a quiet facet successful Mizzou winning 21 games complete nan past 2 years arsenic they’ve had nan luxury of playing mostly opponents pinch nether 50% returning production, and seldom went up against an violative aliases protect portion that classed 25th successful RP.

This year, nan inverse is true. Mizzou’s schedule features 7 opponents pinch complete 560% RP - fto unsocial 50% - and Mizzou has immoderate of nan lowest RP numbers connected its schedule. What’s worse is that nan 2 games that astir apt count nan astir successful position of momentum this twelvemonth - kansas and South Carolina - are astatine nan aforesaid level of RP arsenic nan Tigers, meaning location isn’t overmuch of a built-in advantage successful those matchups.

Also....I’ve mentioned respective times connected nan podcast and successful my previews and this floor plan backs it up: Vanderbilt is going to beryllium vulnerable and Missouri tin perfectly suffer to them this year.

College shot teams are much apt to lucifer their value complete a 5-year agelong than what it looked for illustration nan erstwhile twelvemonth truthful this is simply a bully reference to power cheque immoderate basking commodities. And, for nan first clip successful this measurement, we person nan Barry Odom years afloat scrubbed retired and now it’s only measuring Drinkwitz’s clip astatine nan helm. Notice really Mizzou is now nan 4th champion squad connected its schedule successful 5-year SP+!

And successful lawsuit you were wondering...

All of nan supra numbers get rolled into 1 metric, nan SP+ ranking system, to fig retired nan projected value of nan squad heading into a fixed season. Missouri heads into nan 2025 play classed 21st successful nan federation successful SP+ and nan 5th-best squad of this 13-team sample, projected to beryllium astir 13 points amended than nan mean 2025 assemblage shot team. Alabama is, of course, projected to beryllium astir 28-points amended than an mean assemblage shot team, pinch Texas A&M (17.2), Oklahoma (16.5), and South Carolina (16.1) besides expected to person astatine slightest a two-touchdown bump complete nan mean ‘25 squad. As a comparison, past year’s squad was playing 4 teams projected to beryllium 2 touchdowns amended than nan mean team, while this year’s squad besides faces 4 teams projected arsenic such.

Alabama has rather nan projected lead while Oklahoma, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Auburn are each packed into a 10-point scope - on pinch Missouri - which makes consciousness arsenic those are wide perceived to beryllium nan Tigers’ toughest games of this season. Of those games, only Oklahoma and Auburn are connected nan road.

The backmost position lends itself to starting guys who are either a.) wildly talented, aliases b.) mega experienced. Last year’s Tigers went up against 7 quarterbacks who had astatine slightest 4 years of playing acquisition and this twelvemonth features nan same. Age and acquisition do not needfully equate to “better” but having acquisition is surely nice. The breakdown looks for illustration this:

Keep successful mind these are nan projected starters: who knows if a freshman, transfer, JUCO, aliases walk-on someway wins nan starting occupation for immoderate of these schools successful autumn camp. But, for what it’s worth, location are 4 projected-starting quarterbacks that Missouri will look disconnected against successful 2025 that they besides played against successful 2024. Part of that arena is nan busting up of divisions successful convention play, nan different is owed to portal losses and graduation. It’s a nosy small quirk that I’m not going to fuss to investigation but consciousness safe successful saying is an lawsuit that doesn’t hap each that often, and surely not successful nan pre-portal/NIL era.

So, pinch each of nan numbers retired of nan way, let’s revisit nan 2025 schedule 1 much time:

Once again Mizzou gets 2 “Bye” weeks built into their schedule. As an further quirk, nan Tigers won’t play extracurricular of Faurot Field until Week 8 erstwhile they recreation to Auburn connected October 18th.

Still, acknowledgment to nan Bye Weeks, there’s a not-as-neat-but-still-helpful section of runs that you tin break this play down into.

The first group of 5 are each nan winnable games positive 2 heart-attack inducing matchups against kansas and South Carolina. The adjacent 3 are a imaginable season-killing agelong of Alabama astatine location and past consecutive roadworthy trips to chaos agents Auburn and Vanderbilt. The backmost agelong characteristic 2 tricky roadworthy games, fto unsocial a sojourn from Texas A&M.

Last year’s squad played 5 existent roadworthy games and this year’s group only plays four. But nan truth that each 4 matchup autumn into nan “toss-up” class - and we cognize Eli Drinkwitz’s 8-15 roadworthy grounds is little than sterling - location is simply a chance that Mizzou does not triumph a crippled distant from location this year. Add to that nan truth that nan past 2 roadworthy games are nan past 2 games of nan twelvemonth and this play has nan imaginable to extremity connected a very sour note.

Or. OR. They could triumph them all. I person nary idea.

Still, while location is nary easy schedule successful nan SEC this is 1 of nan much manageable slates retired there. It’s tricky and location are immoderate near-guarantee losses connected nan docket but, successful this era, if you spell 10-2 successful nan SEC you are a superior contender for nan Playoff.

But that’s for later discussion. For now, this is nan starting constituent for nan expansive endeavor that will statesman successful August.